Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots: Final Prediction

Dec 22, 2013; Baltimore, MD, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) shakes hands with Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco (5) after beating the Ravens 41-7 at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Full disclosure: The New England Patriots were my pick at the beginning of the season to get to the Super Bowl. Does that mean I can’t pick the Baltimore Ravens in this game? Maybe. Read on. Find out.

The way analysts are talking about this game, one would think the Patriots are undefeated, the pinnacle of team building.

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Obviously that’s not the case. Their offensive line has been a liability, their receiving corps is competent but not dynamic and their group of cornerbacks pretty much stops at Darrelle Revis. There is plenty for the Ravens to exploit.

That will demand almost a perfect game from Joe Flacco and a vastly above-average game from the Ravens’ secondary. Those two things happened simultaneously against the Steelers, so there is legitimate concern that lightning can’t strike. Of course, Ravens fans have seen this team strike lightning four straight times en route to a Super Bowl ring, so expectations remain high.

And they should. The Patriots are actually the least of all evils for the Patriots to be playing right now, as their only scary weapon is Rob Gronkowski. As bad as the Ravens secondary is, a receiving corps of Julian Edelman and Brandon Lafell can’t beat them down the field for big plays consistently, which plays into the Ravens hands.

Forced to resort to gimmicks in the ground game, the Patriots are not much of a threat there either. So on defense, unless the secondary has a complete meltdown, the Ravens should be fine.

The concern lies on offense, where Flacco will have to yet again carry the team. Justin Forsett will have a difficult time getting much traction against the Patriots swarming defense, regardless of whether or not Eugene Monroe can actually suit up.

With minimal running game (though the Ravens will remain balanced as long as they are in the game), Flacco will be forced to air it out. He should be able to generate some yardage, especially to tight end Owen Daniels and receiver Torrey Smith, both of whom have favorable matchups.

Flacco’s no-interception streak, however, should end tonight. The Patriots run a ton of man coverage on defense, then disguise some zones into their base coverages to throw off quarterbacks. It’s very effective, and Flacco struggles diagnosing unorthodox zone coverages. He can be fooled, so expect the Patriots to do so at least once, generating Flacco’s first playoff interception since when these two teams met in the 2012 AFC Championship Game.

This game will be close, but the Ravens will not have enough firepower to ultimately take down my preseason pick to win it all. They will fight hard and be in the game all the way to the end, making fans proud. It just won’t be enough against a more talented team.

Final Prediction: Patriots 23, Ravens 16

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