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Baltimore Orioles use tried and true blueprint to beat Red Sox

By Nate Wardle

Jun 1, 2017; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles center fielder Adam Jones (10) celebrates after hitting a solo home run in the sixth inning against the Boston Red Sox during a game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Patrick McDermott-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 1, 2017; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles center fielder Adam Jones (10) celebrates after hitting a solo home run in the sixth inning against the Boston Red Sox during a game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Patrick McDermott-USA TODAY Sports /
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Home runs, defense, and pitching to a tolerable degree is the recipe for success when the Baltimore Orioles play against the Boston Red Sox.

The Baltimore Orioles have a typical formula they use to win games: Hit home runs, pitch well enough and play good defense.

For much of the Buck Showalter tenure, that formula has worked for the team.

We know this to be true, but let’s make sure the statistics back it up.

2012 – 93-69, second place in American League East. Lost in American League Division Series to New York Yankees after winning Wild Card Game

  • Scored 712 runs, allowed 705 runs
  • Second place in AL in home runs with 214 (to the Yankees)
  • Sixth in AL in ERA at 3.90
  • 10th in AL in errors with 106

2013 – 85-77, third place in AL East

  • Scored 745 runs, allowed 709 runs
  • First place in AL in home runs with 212
  • 10th in AL in ERA at 4.20
  • First place in AL in errors with 54

2014 – 96-66, First place in AL East. Lost in American League Championship Series to Kansas City Royals after winning ALDS

  • Scored 705 runs, allowed 593 runs
  • First in AL in home runs with 211
  • Third in AL in ERA at 3.43
  • Third in AL in errors with 87

2015 – 81-81, third place in AL East

  • Scored 713 runs, allowed 693 runs
  • Third in AL in home runs with 217
  • Ninth in AL in ERA at 4.05
  • First in AL in errors with 77

2016 – 89-73, second place in AL East, Lost WC Game to Toronto Blue Jays

  • 744 runs scored, allowed 715 runs
  • First place in AL in home runs with 253
  • 10th in AL in ERA at 4.22
  • Fourth in AL in errors with 80

2017 (as of June 2), third place in AL East, would qualify for playoffs

  • 236 runs scored, 239 runs allowed (On pace to score 735, allow 744)
  • Fifth in AL in home runs with 73 (on pace for 227)
  • 11th in AL in ERA at 4.36
  • Fifth in AL in errors at 31 (on pace for 97)

So, what can we decide from looking at the past five years, and part of 2017.

Even years has proved to be playoff seasons for the O’s, but it’s time for that streak to stop.

Take out 2012, which was Manny’s first season at third base and the team was awful defensively, and this team has been solid defensively, in the top five each year. I think this year’s number is a bit misleading because a vast majority of the errors have been throwing errors, not fielding errors. The Orioles are still getting to a lot of the balls hit their direction. The throws have not been consistent, and that is often a matter of focus and concentration.

Offensively, the Orioles have been a dominant team, in the top three in homers each year. While they are slightly behind that right now, I don’t see it lasting as the weather heats up, and several Oriole players heat up as well.

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The Orioles pitching is the main variant. In 2012 and 2014, the Orioles were in the top half of pitching staffs in the American League. In 2016, they were not.

In the two seasons where they missed the playoffs, they had an ERA over 4. In 2012 and 2014, the ERA was under 4. In 2016, it was again over 4.

One could say that they won despite their pitching, and then it caught up to them in the playoffs in 2016.

So, where does that put 2017? Well, the pitching is an obvious concern. The team ERA is well over four, and the team is currently on pace for a negative run differential. I don’t expect that to continue either, and the run differential has never made a big difference in final results for the Orioles.

The Orioles are also not in the top half of ERA in the AL, another cause for concern.

Orioles fielding and the offense I believe both will continue their success, with the errors slowing down and the number of home runs increasing.

Are these three numbers the best determiners to success? Maybe not. But, for the Orioles, it is the three things that stick out on a daily basis. Of course, the Orioles are going to hit home runs, and when they hit several, they usually win.

The Orioles are going to play great defense, and when they don’t commit errors, they aren’t going to beat themselves defensively.

One alarming need for the Orioles is starting pitching, which can determine how good this team is. So far this season, it hasn’t been good enough.

Removing Ubaldo Jimenez from the rotation helps, but that requires someone else to take his place. Kevin Gausman has shown signs of putting it together in innings, but a strong start throughout continues to elude him.

Chris Tillman needs to put it together, even if that means learning how to work with what he now has. Wade Miley and Dylan Bundy have both done very well, especially when they keep the ball in the ballpark and maintain their walks low.

The Baltimore Orioles will go as far as the starting pitching takes them. It is always about the starting pitching, and 2017 looks no different.

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