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Baltimore Orioles’ Davis powers his way to top in AL East rankings

By Nate Wardle

Sep 28, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Baltimore Orioles first baseman Chris Davis (19) hits a single against Toronto Blue Jays in the fourth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 28, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Baltimore Orioles first baseman Chris Davis (19) hits a single against Toronto Blue Jays in the fourth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports /
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Aug 29, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak (14) hits an RBI single in the ninth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 29, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak (14) hits an RBI single in the ninth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports /

4. Toronto Blue Jays

Jays’ first baseman – Justin Smoak, Steve Pearce, Kendrys Morales (DH), Rowdy Tellez

Speaking of players who teams wait for to break out, I give you Justin Smoak. Smoak was a first round draft pick in the 2008 draft but is a career .223/.308/.392 hitter. That won’t cut it.

In 2016, Smoak appeared in 126 games, hitting .217/.314/.391 in 341 plate appearances, with 14 HRs, 10 2Bs, 34 RBIs and 33 runs. With Edwin Encarnacion in Cleveland, the Jays are giving Smoak the starting role. That is if Pearce doesn’t take it from him. Smoak is another guy with a career dWAR worse than -5 (-5.8), and a career WAR of just 1.5. The total fielding runs above average sabermetric is not kind to Smoak either, although his range numbers are ok.

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Then there is Pearce, who played the part of 2016 injured. While playing for the Rays, Pearce hit .309/.388/.520, which includes mashing left-handers. Pearce is a career .269 hitter versus left-handers, versus .245 against righties. Smoak meanwhile is .224 vs. right and .223 vs. left.

Pearce won’t look great defensively, but he also has played many different positions, mainly second base. His career dWAR is -0.3, so much better than Smoak. His other sabermetrics rate better at first than any other position, and better than Smoak as well.

I know the Jays want Smoak to emerge as their starter, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Pearce wins the job, or at least forces his way into a platoon.

Kendrys Morales’ days of playing the field are few and far between, and he will be the main designated hitter for the Jays. Tellez is a top prospect, but likely crack this star-laden roster without injuries.

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