College Football Picks: Five Picks Against the Spread for Week 4

Jan 9, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; General view of the college football playoff trophy during media day at Phoenix Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 9, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; General view of the college football playoff trophy during media day at Phoenix Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /

We look to get back on track in Week 4 with our five College Football picks against the spread on “Bounce Back Saturday.”

We had our first negative Saturday this past weekend with our college football picks, losing three out of our five games.  Although, with that Louisville beat down of Florida State it feels like we went winless. I’ll admit, I was feeling pretty bad after that game. Not as bad as the Big 12 feels however. Outside of long shot West Virginia running the table, that conference can pretty much kiss their playoff hopes goodbye.

Alas, we are not the Big 12 and after a rough weekend we can build on our 10-5-1 record after three weeks, and have a bounce back Saturday. It will be interesting to see which teams join us in bouncing back this weekend. The public should be able to get good value on teams that were considered good last Friday but suffered bad losses on Saturday. Let’s jump in.

Note: Winners are marked in bold

Florida State (-4.5) at USF – Noon

The Noles got punched in the mouth early and often last week and it had a snowball effect as the game went on. If this game was played a week earlier the line would be -15 so I think we have great value here.  After not really getting the chance to get Dalvin Cook going last week, I’d look for him to be the focal part of their offense this week. He rushed for 266 yards last year against the Bulls. I trust Jimbo Fisher to steer the Noles to a bounce back two touchdown win in this one.

Duke at Notre Dame (-19) – 3:30 p.m.

There’s nothing like facing a freshman QB to help your defense bounce back from some poor performances. Daniel Jones has stepped in for injured starter, senior Thomas Sirk, and has yet to throw a touchdown against an FBS opponent. The Irish offense hasn’t been the problem as they have averaged 38 points per game. I’d expect Deshaun Kizer to help build a large lead and wouldn’t be surprised to see Malik Zaire come in and make something happen with his legs. Irish should score in the mid 40’s here.

Georgia Southern at Western Michigan (-7) – 7:00 pm

Last year, after hanging tough in the opener against Michigan State, Western Michigan got embarrassed by Georgia Southern 43-17. Now I’m not one that likes to pretend that I know which teams are motivated or ticked off so I’m not going to call this a revenge game. I do have to believe that the Bronco’s will stay focused this week after having already beaten two Big Ten Teams on the road. Ultimately, there will be too much offense for Georgia Southern to handle.  Keep an eye on Corey Davis.  Much like Greg Jennings out of Western Michigan, he is a legitimate NFL receiver. WMU is a safe play.

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California at Arizona State (Over 82) – 10:00 p.m.

I would have to imagine this is the highest total I’ve ever taken the over on. The bottom line is these teams score and give up scores at an alarming rate.  Cal’s average total their last five games is 89. ASU’s average total their last five games is 83.8. They played each other in the regular season finale last year and put up 94. Last week, Cal and Texas combined for 93 points and neither team scored in the third quarter. ASU put up 68 points in a game it trailed in the third quarter two weeks ago. California is fifth in plays per game while ASU is 14th.  Why worry about picking a winner, just pick the points.

Washington (-10) at Arizona – 10:30 p.m.

I could dazzle you with plenty of stats like Washington’s starting defense hasn’t given up a touchdown yet or they are winning by an average of 39 points per game, but at the end of the day they haven’t played anybody this year.  However, while several other top 15 teams have struggled with or even lost to far inferior opponents, the Huskies have been T.C.O.B. every day, T.C.O.B. every way.  I am not concerned with which quarterback the Wildcats end up starting because I think Washington wins big either way.

For those of you that get up early and head to church to ask forgiveness for all of your gambling sins, I am sorry to keep you up all night with these West Coast games.  For those of you just finishing up your pregame and heading out as the late games kick off, you’re welcome.  This week we’re going to bounce back like a Bozo bop bag.  But remember, don’t bet more than you can afford to lose and you can’t go broke by taking a profit.