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Baltimore Orioles and the Cy Young Award

By Nate Wardle

Jul 6, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Baltimore Orioles relief pitcher Zach Britton (53) in the 14th inning of the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Orioles win 6-4 in 14 innings. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 6, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Baltimore Orioles relief pitcher Zach Britton (53) in the 14th inning of the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Orioles win 6-4 in 14 innings. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports /
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Chris Tillman
Jul 21, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Chris Tillman (30) pitches during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports /

The Baltimore Orioles could have two leading candidates to win the Cy Young Award in 2016.

For as maligned as the Baltimore Orioles’ pitching has been this year, there is a chance they could have two finalists for the Cy Young Award by the end of the year.

For Oriole fans, it has been a long time.  Steve Stone won the award in 1980, and Mike Flanagan the year before in 1979.  However, it has been 35 years since the last time the O’s had someone win the Cy Young.

But, this year could be a different story.

A win tonight by Chris Tillman would give him the major league lead in wins (15), ahead of Chris Sale, the only other person with 14.

Tillman’s WAR is at 4.1, the highest by all pitchers in the American League.

Tillman also will be in the lead for most games started in 2016 with 22 after Tuesday.

Sure, Tillman isn’t in the top in strikeouts, or WHIP, as he is not a guy with great peripherals. But, he has been fantastic this year.

Alas, Tillman isn’t the only one.

Zach Britton leads the American League in saves by four, over Francisco Rodriguez.

He is top in the AL (and second only to Clayton Kershaw) in Win Probability Added.

So, while all that looks good, there are more advanced statistics backing up Britton and Tillman’s run for the Cy Young.

ESPN’s Cy Young Predictor has Britton and Tillman first and second respectively, ten points ahead of Sale.

The predictor, which allegedly is based on past results, uses a statistical formula of ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB.  VB stands for Victory Bonus, a 12-point bonus for your team winning their division.

So, let’s look closer. Pitchers get points for innings pitched (of which Tillman has 11 less than league leaders Justin Verlander). They also get points for strikeouts, where Tillman would not be near the top, shutouts, which Tillman has none of, wins, and lack of losses.

So, one could argue that Tillman’s candidacy is largely based on his record.  And while that may be true, if he finishes at 24-4, it would be very hard to deny him the Cy Young.  Especially if he is near the league lead in wins, and having carried the Orioles’ pitching staff.

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As for Britton, he is only 2-1, but his points come from his very low ERA, which is a sparkling 0.63. For comparison, the last closer to win the Cy Young was Eric Gagne in the NL in 2003. He finished with 55 saves, a 2-3 record, and a 1.20 ERA.

Britton, of course is on pace to approach these numbers, and have a lower ERA.

So, if these two pitchers continue their fantastic seasons, the Orioles could be well on their way to the first Cy Young in over 35 years.

And the ‘experts’ say the Orioles do not have good pitching!

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