Baltimore Orioles: Comparing Nelson Cruz and Mark Trumbo

With Mark Trumbo’s great start of the 2016 season for the Baltimore Orioles, it is inevitable that the reference will be made to the same sort of experience in 2014 with Nelson Cruz.

Purely talking baseball (not referencing the PED issue with Cruz), there are similarities between the two power hitters. Each had periods of high level successes in their career, though each also needed a new start in a new place.

Cruz got off to a great start in Baltimore in 2014 and quickly endeared himself to the fans. He is rightly credited with helping the Orioles achieve their 96-win AL East championship of that season. And likewise, Trumbo and the Birds are off to a great start in 2016, thereby dredging up more comparisons and hopes that this new year will end up in the 90s-plus number of victories.

It is not a crazy way to think. And the following numbers will bear out the comparison as very similar. Here are the numbers for each after 25 games played in their respective seasons. Even the team records are much alike — the Orioles at 15-10 now, while the 2014 Birds were 14-11 in Cruz’s first 25 games with them…

How well might Trumbo’s early production play out through the rest of the season?  Cruz ended up hitting .271 with 40 home runs and 108 RBIs. While he had good months of May and September, it is often forgotten that the three summer months of June through August were not that great for Nelson. While he did hit 15 home runs over the summer, he also only batted .214 during that time.

This “disappearance” was what put me in the category of not wanting to see the Orioles sign him to a long-term deal. That failure to do so looked pretty bad after last year when Cruz hit 44 home runs. And he totally reversed the summer slump trend of ’14 by hitting 21 homers in that time last year, batting a robust .301.  I guess the cooler air of Seattle helped him, and maybe the warmer air of Baltimore will help Trumbo?

Right at this moment Nelson Cruz is hitting .274 with four homers and 14 RBIs.  The value and wisdom of the long-term 4yr/$57M deal will play out over the next two seasons. And the same also with Nick Markakis, who also had a great 2015 season. Right now Nick is hitting .281 with an OBP of .391 with 20 RBIs, though no homers.

Next: The Ups and Downs of Chris Tillman

It certainly looks like the Mark Trumbo deal is a very good one for the Baltimore Orioles. A guess is that he will have some down times. And perhaps his slugging/RBI totals will be a bit less than Cruz, yet with other metrics like batting average trending higher. And we all support him leading the O’s to a 96-win season!