Baltimore Orioles Hot Start: Luck Or Skill?

The Baltimore Orioles have started hot, but has it been because of good luck, skill, or a mix of both?

I think one of the things I love most about baseball is just how ridiculous it can be. The incredible start that the Orioles have had is a prime example of that. As it stands right now, after eight games, the Orioles stand atop the AL East at 7-1, having lost their first game last night to the Red Sox.

If you had picked the Orioles to be dominating baseball before the season started, then I have a few lottery tickets I’d like you to buy for me. Sure, some people expected the Orioles to be good, but to be this good? Not really.

A few days back, Jeff Sullivan wrote an article looking at the standings and what teams have changed their playoff odds. No surprise, the Orioles’ playoff chances increased the most, adding 14 percentage points to their odds.

So what’s happened? Why are they this good? Is it likely to continue? Well if there’s anything I love as much as baseball, it’s statistics, so let’s take a look at what exactly is going on with the Glorioles.

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The first thing everyone thinks of with the Orioles, and the big thing everyone was talking about in the preseason, is their hitting. Earlier in the preseason, I wrote an article projecting the starting lineup stats for the team, and by my projections, they’d be leading the league in home runs. Currently, the Orioles are tied for third with Houston and Seattle in home runs this year with 14, only five behind the leader (not surprisingly) Colorado.

We all knew that Manny Machado and Chris Davis would hit, and we’re expecting that, once he’s back from the DL, Adam Jones will hit. But there have been some performances that have been pretty unexpected.

First, we have Mark Trumbo, who has been hitting the ball like a madman, currently slashing .406/.441/.625. Now, we know Trumbo can hit home runs, and he’ll probably hit 30 with the Orioles, but he’s a career .252 hitter, he’s never really had much of an average. Most of his .406 average is BABIP driven; it’s at .423 right now, which is insanely high. He’s going to lose about 200 points of batting average before the year is over. He’s also historically a hot-starter, batting a career .262 with 80 HRs in the first half of the season, and .242 with 53 HRs in the second half. This is what he does.

Apr 4, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles center fielder Joey Rickard (23) doubles during the fifth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports /

Next, we have the name that’s been sweeping Baltimoreans off their feet: Joey Rickard. While too many Orioles fans are busy burning their Hyun-Soo Kim effigies, Rickard has come in and started hitting, slashing .323/.343/.484 so far. Similar to Trumbo, much of this is BABIP-driven, which is sitting at .346. Most of what he’s hitting in play is landing for a hit, and that’ll correct itself.

There is another thing concerning me about Rickard. One of the selling points for him was his speed, but he has yet to steal a base, or even to attempt it. He’s had opportunities, he’s been on base, but he hasn’t tried to steal a base yet. Whether that’s his fault or it’s coaching, I’m not sure, but my eyebrow is raised.

Probably the best, and most surprising, thing the Orioles have been doing so far is their pitching. As of now, they have the sixth-best ERA in baseball, at 3.04, which is unexpected to say the least. One of the biggest question marks coming into this season was their pitching, but there’s been some luck there too.

First, there’s Chris Tillman, who’s only pitched seven innings, and while they’ve been seven good innings, he’s been getting lucky. First, there’s his 40% K Rate (12.86 K/9) which is unheard of, and his .250 BABIP, which suggests a good bit of luck. Plus, despite his 1.29 ERA, his FIP is 3.03, which also suggests some luck.

There’s also the bullpen, which has about a 90% LOB rate and a mediocre FIP, which suggests a bit of a regression in the future, though I do think the Orioles’ bullpen will be one of the stronger bullpens in baseball. They’re already tied for second in the MLB for saves.

As expected, Yovani Gallardo has been bad, and perhaps most concerning is the fact that his fastball has dropped from 90 mph last year to 87 mph so far this year. If that stays, we’re in for many more bad starts from Gallardo.

One player that has really intrigued me so far though is Ubaldo Jimenez. In two starts, he’s got a 3.75 ERA but a 2.92 FIP despite a ridiculously high .406 BABIP. A BABIP that high would normally come with a huge ERA, but not in Ubaldo’s case, which is interesting to me. Plus, he’s averaging 10 K/9 and is getting hitters to swing at stuff outside the strike zone more than he ever has before. I’m not suggesting Ubaldo’s going to win the Cy Young or something, but it’s definitely something to watch.

It’s not surprising that the statistics show the Orioles have had a lot of luck, that’s to be expected when they’re 7-1. And yes, this is the ultimate small sample size, but we know the Orioles can hit, they’ve shown us that, and it’s why they’ve been so fun to watch. They’re going to score a ton of runs, and if they can do that and have a pitching staff that’s even halfway decent along with a good bullpen, we might be in for a great season.

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