Baltimore Orioles: How to Use Pedro Alvarez
The Baltimore Orioles announced the addition of Pedro Alvarez, now how will he be used to best benefit within a powerful lineup?
At the press conference related to the signing on Thursday, Buck Showalter spoke about the possibilities. While Alvarez is largely seen as a terrible liability in the field (supported by varied defensive metrics), the O’s manager did not rule out having El Toro occasionally at a position …
"“Some people don’t realize this is an athletic guy who’s got potential to give us a lot of options around the field.”"
That does not sound encouraging. And while I suppose he will perhaps very occasionally be at first base, there is no doubt that Alvarez is going to be primarily a designated hitter, particularly against right-handed pitching.
If he is used as the DH in games against RHP, how many will that likely be? Looking back at the past four years from 2012-2015 the numbers are 118, 109, 121, and 117. So it is likely that the Orioles will face about 115 right-handed starters. Of course, left-handed relief pitching can often follow a righty starter.
Another Showalter quote was to state that he might use Alvarez as well against left-handed pitching, saying …
"“I don’t believe in setting limitations about him being a DH against right-handed pitching … He’s shown the ability to damage against left-handed pitching too.”"
Really? Is this true, or is it Buck being a nice, positive guy at the introductory press conference? Honestly, Alvarez’s splits are not great over his career versus LHP. Here is a chart, looking first at his career numbers …
| Career | PA | HR | AVG | OBP |
| Vs. RHP | 2161 | 114 | .246 | .320 |
| Vs. LHP | 623 | 17 | .203 | .270 |
That is not very good against lefties. So where is Buck seeing anything about “damage” against LHP? Maybe it was just this most recent season, which looks rather different …
| 2015 | PA | HR | AVG | OBP |
| Vs. RHP | 426 | 24 | .240 | .322 |
| Vs. LHP | 65 | 3 | .258 | .292 |
Again, his home run power is massively diminished against LHPs. But in 2015 his average was better; though strangely, the OBP remained much better against right-handers. Weird!
So what does this all say? Probably it is better to mostly only use him against right-handed starters, which will be in about 70-75% of games. Likely a better DH choice can be used against LHP starters, unless Alvarez has a specifically good matchup record against a particular left-handed pitcher.
Looking more broadly, how will Alvarez help the Orioles with DH stats and numbers as compared to recent seasons? Let’s seek to graph this as well. First is Pedro in 2015 (150 games), whereas the second row is Alvarez averaged over a 162-game season. The next four columns are Orioles DHs over the past four seasons, understanding that it represents 152 games each (due to inter-league play).
| HRs | RBIs | AVG | OBP | |
| Alvarez ‘15 | 27 | 77 | .243 | .318 |
| Alvarez – 162 | 29 | 88 | .236 | .309 |
| O’s 2012 DHs | 24 | 71 | .240 | .323 |
| O’s 2013 DHs | 21 | 69 | .234 | .289 |
| O’s 2014 DHs | 26 | 90 | .278 | .332 |
| O’s 2015 DHs | 14 | 65 | .253 | .308 |
These numbers show what a rather dismal year was 2015 for Orioles designated hitters, while 2014 was very fine, largely due of course to Nelson Cruz.
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Conclusion: If Pedro Alvarez has a season that is average to above average, it is going to be an upgrade over most of what has happened for designated hitters in recent years, particularly in a friendlier hitting ballpark.