Baltimore Orioles: Against All Odds

Aug 1, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles relief pitcher Kevin Gausman (39) pitches during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports /

The Baltimore Orioles have been picked to be last in the American League East by many pundits this offseason. Can they go against all odds to become winners?

The Birds have made those sorts of predictions look ill-advised in the past. However, can the Orioles reverse these dire predictions and win the division or at least make the playoffs?

The Dirty Projections

USA Today has pegged the Orioles to go 78-84. This would put them at the bottom of the AL East standings. Athlon Sports has Baltimore to finish fourth.

Baseball Prospectus also used their PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) to create projections for the 2016 MLB. According to the system, the Orioles will not have a very successful season.

PECOTA projects Baltimore to go 72-90 in ’16. This puts them in the AL East 13 games behind the projected fourth-place New York Yankees. It would also make the Orioles the owners of the worst record in the American League.

Even as currently constructed, I believe that there is no way that the Orioles are as bad as many of these pundits say. Here’s what the Orioles’ projected roster looks like, prior to any additions:

Lineup

3B Manny Machado (R)

LF Hyun-soo Kim (L)

CF Adam Jones (R)

1B Chris Davis (L)

C Matt Wieters (S)

DH Mark Trumbo (R)

RF Nolan Reimold (R)

2B Jonathan Schoop (R)

SS J.J. Hardy (R)

Bench

INF Ryan Flaherty (L)

C Caleb Joseph (R)

OF Joey Rickard (R)

UT Jimmy Paredes (S)

Rotation

RHP Chris Tillman

RHP Kevin Gausman

RHP Miguel Gonzalez

RHP Ubaldo Jimenez

RHP Tyler Wilson

Bullpen

LHP Zach Britton (Closer)

RHP Darren O’Day

RHP Brad Brach

LHP Brian Matusz

RHP Mychal Givens

RHP Dylan Bundy

RHP Vance Worley

Why I Believe The “Experts” Are Wrong

The Orioles have beaten the odds before. Two examples are the 2012 and 2014 seasons. The Orioles hadn’t made the playoffs for 14 years prior to 2012. The team was widely picked for last place, but by the end of the season, that wasn’t the case.

Baltimore brings back a fully healthy Matt Wieters. He missed half of 2015 with his recovery from Tommy John surgery. Now, Wieters is back to being 100% and over a year removed from his injury and subsequent return. He was given the qualifying offer during this offseason and looks to run with it in Baltimore.

“It was an expedited seven-day procedure for me, but it was in my mind and I just kept praying about it and the Lord kept saying ‘Baltimore might be the city where you’re supposed to be this year,'” said Wieters in an interview with the Baltimore Sun’s Peter Schmuck. “So, I was more than excited to accept it. I thought this offseason was going to be completely different going into it, but I was glad that I had the decision done and I’m excited to get back to spring training.”

Along with a fully healthy Wieters, J.J. Hardy believes in his shoulder this Spring after working out seven weeks earlier than normal.

“Got started working out earlier this year than I ever have,” Hardy said. “I’ve got about seven weeks under my belt now and it is feeling strong. Everything’s feeling good.”

Hardy had a poor season last year. He hit .219 with only eight home runs. The shortstop also only played in 114 games, his fewest since playing with the Minnesota Twins in 2010.

Hardy’s new-found strength in his shoulder should give the Orioles another boost at the bottom of the lineup. Hardy isn’t the only middle infielder who expects to have a fully healthy 2016. Jonathan Schoop also is fully healthy after missing a chunk of last season due to a MCL injury.

Schoop hit 15 home runs in only 86 games last season. He finished his 2016 in stride, with a slash line of .279/.306/.482. In a little more than half of a season, Schoop played exceptionally. This leads me to believe that he could very well hit 30 home runs by the end of this season, especially if he endures it fully healthy.

Sep 13, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles second baseman Jonathan Schoop (6) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run during the second inning against the Kansas City Royals at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports /

Along with the health of these players, the Orioles still have the home run hitting talents of Davis, Machado, Jones, and the new edition, Trumbo. These players all have the ability to hit 30 home runs in the hot and muggy confines of Camden Yards. This lineup could easily be any pitcher’s worst nightmare without any additions, but in the words of the late great Billy Mays, “Wait, there’s more!”

The Orioles have added Kim to the lineup, who is currently an unproven commodity in the MLB. However, his patience at the plate in Korea has shown many scouts that he could be a good talent for the Orioles. Last season in the KBO, he batted .326 and hit 28 home runs and also had an OBP of .438.

The OBP is what intrigues me the most. He seems to have a good eye at the plate, something that the slugging Orioles needed, and he doesn’t try obliterate the ball. This is a huge addition for the Orioles. Along with Kim, the Orioles are reportedly discussing a contract with outfielder Dexter Fowler.

Fowler has very good speed and gets on base. (.346 OBP last season) He could be the table setter to what could be an already amazing Oriole lineup.

Now let’s get to the Orioles pitching staff.

Chris Tillman (4.99 ERA last season) and Miguel Gonzalez (4.91) didn’t have the greatest of seasons last year. Hopefully for the Orioles, they can bounce back from those poor seasons. Tillman has the ability to be a very good starter. If he didn’t, he wouldn’t have been named to the All-Star team in 2013. He can give the Orioles 200 innings any given year. Even if he doesn’t pitch at his best, as long as he pitches better than he did last season, it gives the Orioles a shot to win.

Gonzalez also has the ability to get outs. Last season was his first 4+ ERA season as a Major Leaguer. His track record shows that he is better than how he performed last season. At his best, he gives the Orioles a number 3 starter who can be a pest to opposing teams with his wit and attention to detail on the mound.

Ubaldo Jimenez is the wild card of the bunch. He pitched very well during the first half of last season. However, by the end of the year he ended with a 4.11 ERA. He projects to be the Orioles number 4 starter next season.

Kevin Gausman has major talent. Putting that talent into a full uninterrupted Major League season is one question that many people have asked. Gausman has constantly been shuttled back and forth between Norfolk and Baltimore during the past three seasons. This year, I expect Gausman to have a full season with the Orioles. I also expect Gausman to have a sub-4 ERA. He has been mastering a third pitch that will help him get deeper into ballgames.

Speaking of young pitchers, the Orioles also have Tyler Wilson waiting in the wings. I believe that if the Orioles do not sign Yovani Gallardo, then Wilson will be the fifth starter. Wilson showed a command that many young pitchers don’t seem to have. He pitched to a 3.50 ERA in five starts and nine appearances total. During that span, he only gave up one home run. That is music to the Orioles’ ears. I think that Wilson will be on the club if Gallardo isn’t signed.