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Baltimore Orioles: Why Dexter Fowler Makes Sense

By Ben Palmer

October 20, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs center fielder Dexter Fowler (24) hits a double in the eighth inning against the New York Mets in game three of the NLCS at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
October 20, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs center fielder Dexter Fowler (24) hits a double in the eighth inning against the New York Mets in game three of the NLCS at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Baltimore Orioles have recently been linked to free agent Dexter Fowler, and signing him makes a lot of sense for the team.

The Orioles have recently been linked to a number of current free agents, one of whom is outfielder Dexter Fowler. He makes a lot of sense for the Orioles to sign as he gives the Orioles some skills that they are desperately in need of.

Last year, Fowler took some major steps forward with the Cubs. He had career-highs in home runs (17), RBIs (46) and runs (102) with a slash line of .250/.346/.411. He’s 29-years-old and really coming into his own, and this is provable because there was a noticeable skill change.

Whenever I see a player have a career-best year in one way or another, the first thing I look for is a noticeable skill change, or if he was the recipient of some good fortune. What I mean by a noticeable skill change is something that changed that is repeatable, i.e. a change in their batting approach, a change in windup, better control, better plate discipline, etc. There are some stats that are indicators of that.

For pitchers, you look at their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), K-rate, walk-rate, Batting Average On Balls In Play (BABIP), HR/FB%, as well as changes in pitching velocity or pitch type. For hitters, you look at BABIP, K-rate, walk-rate, OBP, SLG, Isolated Power (ISO), HR/FB% among other things. With Fowler, there is a definitive skill change that has occurred.

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Last year, Fowler had a contact rate that increased for the third-straight year, a higher fly ball percentage than he’s had the past five years, and his HR/FB% was the third-highest in his career. He’s hitting the ball more and getting more lift on the ball, and somehow he was able to do that in Wrigley Field, a park that is not particularly friendly to left-handed power.

But you know what park is very friendly to left-handed power? That’s right, Camden Yards is. Exceptionally friendly, actually, and Camden Yards is a field that Fowler would excel in. Add in the fact that Fowler is easily a 20 stolen base threat (something the Orioles are lacking, as they were dead last in stolen bases as a team, 45% of which were generated by Manny Machado) and you’ve got a potential 20/20 candidate to go along with Machado.

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It would be tempting for the Orioles to slot Fowler in the lead-off spot because for some reason, managers in the MLB think speed=lead-off hitter, but if the Orioles are smart and put him in second lineup, ahead of, say, Machado, Fowler’s runs will be even better and he’ll be an exceptionally good addition to a team that’s in desperate need of an outfielder. If Fowler signs to the Orioles, I’d project him to hit .260/.351/.420 with 23 home runs, 20 steals, 110 runs, and 50 RBI. That’s something we could definitely use.

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