Baltimore Orioles: Players Predicted to Regress in 2016
Today we consider a list of Baltimore Orioles players predicted to regress in 2016 as compared to the past year or two.
It is inevitable that at least a handful of players on any MLB team will struggle to maintain consistent historic performance. Many factors go into this, not the least of which is aging and health considerations. As well, some fail to make the appropriate adjustments to the increasingly significant research that goes into the modern game, with over-shifts and so on.
Beyond this, some players have recently had a career year, and repeating that performance is simply not sustainable.
In the corresponding article of this current four-part series last February, we called for six Orioles players to regress in 2015, and indeed four of them did.
The largest meltdown of them all was Bud Norris. He did have his best season ever in 2014, and I continue to believe the most significant contributing factor this past year was the severe illness he suffered. It would not surprise me to see Norris come back to good form again as a starting pitcher, maybe even this year.
We also hit on Steve Pearce being unable to repeat anything like 2014. That was not a bold prediction, but neither did I expect it would drop off as far as it did from one year to the next.
Noting also a pattern of slight decline year-to-year for Adam Jones, I called for this to continue, even if just marginally. Early in the season it looked like he was going to have a career year, but he too had more nagging and cumulative injuries than any other season. And there was a drop-off in production.
Of Matt Wieters we wrote:
"The Orioles are going to see Wieters play a lot of games in 2015, but I don’t think he is going to be an everyday player, or anything close to that for at least the first couple of months. This was a big, big break from daily play, and though I would still expect to see Wieters contribute positively on offense, I would be surprised if it was in the upper .200s with power … nothing like the start we saw in 2014."
This turned out to be largely true. He played in 75 games, batting .267 with eight home runs.
The two names I missed out on, thankfully, were Darren O’Day and T.J. McFarland … predicting both to fall off just a bit. In fact, each got a bit better. That is amazing for O’Day, who is now nicely rewarded with the four-year, $31 million contract. And McFarland is a nice piece to have for long or middle relief, and he could be a big player in 2016.
But turning now to the coming season, here again are six players I’m feeling could well regress…
Darren O’Day — If I expect it enough years consecutively, I have to be correct sometime sooner or later, right? Like last year, it is difficult to imagine O’Day getting better. And even if he is not quite as good, he would still prove to be a valuable reliever on most occasions. The past four years with the Orioles have been truly outstanding.
J.J. Hardy — He makes all the plays on defense, which for a shortstop is probably more than half the game and half the value to a team. But Hardy looks like a half-dozen body parts are all hurting at the same time. The reason for this is, I suspect, that a half-dozen body parts are aching. Even if the back injury of last year has repaired, I fear there is another just waiting to take its place. So this is not so much a prediction of decline as it is a concern that Hardy will not be ever coming back to what he was, say, two to three years ago.
Ryan Flaherty — Dumping on Flaredog has become standard fare on this site, but that is what happens to a player hitting .224 > .221 > .202 over the past three seasons. Without doubt, he brings great value to the team by his defensive versatility, which is outstanding. But at some point the huge 0-for-whatever slumps make a player unable to be retained simply to be a defensive cover. I think that happens this year.
Jimmy Paredes — As has been written endlessly about Paredes, the first-half / second-half splits are startlingly different. But they display the issue: the inability to adjust to the league adjustments against him. Add to this the defensive difficulties, and where is there a spot for him on the 2016 Orioles? Even if he has a great spring training, of what certain value is that? We’ve seen that movie before.
Efren Navarro — We did an evaluation article last week on this acquisition, and it was not glowing with positives, even while noting the excellent AAA numbers (from the PCL). I would sooner bet on De Aza or Travis Snider than on this player. Neither of them remained, so why should this new player work out?
Dylan Bundy — This too fits more into the category of not making a comeback than it does a regression from prior performance. I think Bundy is going to eventually be a decent MLB pitcher, but it is going to sadly be something that flourishes more at some other place. He is starting the race this season from a flat-footed, standing position. Hopefully there will be some positive contribution, but I’m not betting on it being very significant nor season-long.
OVERALL — Understand that as an Orioles fan I want to be wrong on everything said above. But history would say that more than a couple of these predictions will come true. It is the nature of the game. It is not an easy game to play well.
Related Story: https://thebaltimorewire.com/2016/02/03/baltimore-orioles-players-predicted-to-improve-in-2016/
Related Story: https://thebaltimorewire.com/2016/02/04/orioles-players-predicted-for-similar-performance-in-2016/
Our final article in this four-part series will be tomorrow morning, and it includes a box of chocolates.