Baltimore Orioles: Players Predicted to Improve in 2016

Sep 18, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Baltimore Orioles second baseman Jonathan Schoop (6) works out prior to the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

Quite a number of Baltimore Orioles players are poised for either a breakout season in 2016, or for at least a marked improvement over last year.

Every February here on The Baltimore Wire, I take a four-part series to analyze and predict what players will have one of three experiences in the coming season: improvement, similar production, regression; or that they are too unknown or inconsistent to be highly predictable.

Along the way I will reflect on the four articles from a year ago and how those predictions fared. That is always a mixed bag. The 2014 season with 96 wins was a pretty special event, and it was difficult going into 2015 to expect that so many who did well that previous year would be able to either repeat it or perform at an even higher level.

A couple of these predictions are, frankly, totally brilliant! A couple of them are also … well … insanely idiotic.

Brilliant Predictions (or at least, pretty good!)

The first name on the list to improve was Manny Machado. How’s this for brilliant? “The only thing Manny Machado needs to have a great career is a pair of good wheels under him. Does he have them now? … I would predict that he is now ready to make the move to a full season at a very high level of steady performance. Machado could well be the Orioles’ overall best offensive player in 2015. And of course, his stellar defense is assumed.” Yep, that happened.

Here’s another, about Jonathan Schoop: “I would not predict Jonathon Schoop to have one of the two or three best seasons of his career in 2015, but I would expect him to be among the first handful of Orioles who make a very strong step forward in production.” Yes, he did.

Here’s another that hit the nail on the head last February: “I believe Wei-Yin Chen to be quietly among the most competitive of the Orioles players. He does not like performing poorly. This is his final year before free agency. He now has 515 innings of MLB experience … Chen could even be the best starter on the Orioles in 2015. And because of that, it will be his last year in Baltimore.”

Other fairly good calls included Brad Brach improving a click over 2014, and he did go from a 3.18 to 2.72 ERA. Chris Davis was on the list as well, though he outperformed the numbers I predicted. There was a similar call for Caleb Joseph to go up a notch, and he did.

Failed Predictions (rather dumb, some of them)

There were a couple of epic fails however. I really thought the change of scenery for Travis Snider and the O’s clubhouse would make for a breakout season with him realizing his potential while becoming the everyday right fielder. Oops! Not quite as crazy was predicting Delmon Young to build on his 2014 campaign and get more at-bats and bigger production. It just didn’t work out, though I’m not sure I’d lay all the blame at his feet.

Lesser errors were predicting Kevin Gausman to have a solid 180-inning season (it was a mediocre 112.1), and I called for Henry Urrutia to tear it up at AAA and force his way onto the big club during the season. He only partially fulfilled that.

Predictions of Improved Seasons for 2016

So here are this year’s February predictions for Orioles players to either have a breakout season or to minimally show a step of progress forward as compared particularly to last year.

Jonathan Schoop — With 86 games played in 2015, Schoop made a step forward. He is clearly growing on the job and growing into his natural talent. He is first on this list because I believe he can be the offensive player in 2016 that Machado was in 2015. Over 30 home runs would not be out of the picture, nor would batting in the .280s or better with marked improvement in OBP and plate discipline. He just needs to stay healthy, but that is true of everyone.

Kevin Gausman — Though we called for this to happen in 2015, let’s again predict the 2016 season where Gausman officially “arrives” as a top-of-the-rotation sort of starter. Look for a seasonal ERA of 3.50 or better on 185+ innings. Finally he will not be on the disruptive schedule of the Norfolk shuttle.

Matt Wieters — I have not been as historically big of a proponent of Wieters as are most other Orioles writers. But just prior to his injury in 2014, it looked like he had arrived and put it all together. Last year was a recovery season, though it never made it to 100%. With another winter of recovery, look now for Wieters to have his best season ever with the Orioles. It won’t be incredible, but it will be quite good — good enough to be his last in Baltimore.

Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez — We’ll put their names together, as they most often are mentioned in tandem — having arrived in 2012 and pitching well through the end of 2014. And then together they took a dive in 2015. As everyone writes (because it is true), much of the success of the coming Orioles season is in the hands of these two starters. Neither has overpowering stuff. Rather, each needs to have a strong level of accurate command of their pitches to have success. Nagging injuries affected both in 2015. These should now be in the past, so let’s call for them each to largely recover to prior form (though not beyond), and to be sufficiently successful to help the Orioles have a good season.