Baltimore Orioles: Another Angle on the Starting Rotation

If the Baltimore Orioles were to sign long-term free agent starting pitchers, they will have little room to develop their own talent.

Everyone in Orioleland is concerned about the starting rotation, and the drop-off in effectiveness from 2014-2015 has been commented upon ad nauseam here and in other Orioles blogs and outlets.

Much of the fanbase, certainly including many of you who are reading this post, are of the opinion that Baltimore management has been derelict in not addressing this obvious issue. Duquette has chaffed mightily at the market costs, shortages and uncertainties of starting pitching. Clearly now, the Orioles are simply not going to part with that top draft pick by signing Gallardo or anyone else who turned down the qualifying offer.

The concern is that all of the run production in the world cannot make up for a terrible starting rotation.

As I often say, there is more than an ounce of truth to that standard baseball axiom, but not a full pound. Again … it is getting ad nauseam to repeat it … if this is indisputably true, how did the Royals just win the World Series?

But today, let me share another additional angle. If every time the Orioles need to fill a hole in the rotation they go out and buy guaranteed veteran arms (an oxymoron for sure — the guaranteed part!), there would be no vacancies in the rotation for up and coming starters from within the system.

It is constantly affirmed by the team, and constantly reaffirmed by the fans of the team, that the Orioles need to develop their own pitching talent and get considerable contributions from them before they hit free agency. How is that to happen if young pitchers are regularly blocked from advancing to the Big Leagues?

The prior work of Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez is sufficient to warrant their continuance and expectation of a rebound year. Ubaldo is being paid big bucks; he’s going to pitch. Kevin Gausman has to be a regular now. Dylan Bundy will be nearby and a year away from a rotation spot. Vance Worley could be an immediate answer. T.J. McFarland is there, though slated more as a long reliever.

But wait, there’s more … as goes the commercial. There’s actually a lot more. Look at the following chart of rising talents in the Orioles’ AAA and AA ranks from 2015. Did you know that there was an upper level pitcher who was 16-2 with a 1.000 WHIP? He’s no kid; he’ll be 30 this year. That is Terry Doyle.

But look at this chart that shows what some familiar young pitchers (and some lesser-knowns) accomplished mostly as starters in 2015 …

The point is this: What more do some of these players need to do at AAA to be considered and given a chance to fly or crash on the MLB level? [related-cagtegory]

What more does Mike Wright need to do at AAA than a 2.22 ERA and WHIP of 1.04?  Yes, he had a few rough outings in 44.2 innings with the O’s. But how does he learn without some repetitions?

And then there is Tyler Wilson. His AAA numbers are not as great as Wright, but they aren’t all wrong (see what I did there?).  And consider that in 36 innings with the Orioles he had a 3.50 ERA.  The great staff of 2014 for Baltimore had a combined ERA of 3.43 and the starters 3.61.

This “W” duo (who run together in my head all the time … anyone else experience that?) are both 2011 draftees who are playing their age 26 seasons. Chris Jones will turn 28 in September.

Next: A new era of greater spending in Baltimore?

All of this is not to say that there is nothing to worry about relative to the Orioles rotation. And yes, you can never have enough depth. But this is to say that there does need to be some sort of path for rising pitching to find their way to the majors, even on a very good team that is playoffs competitive. And I don’t think this angle is sufficiently understood by many who look in from the outside.