Baltimore Orioles: The Problem of Predicting the Future
Looking back at Baltimore Orioles predictions from a few years ago teaches us that predicting O’s success in the future is very difficult.
There is this one really big problem about projecting lineups in the distant future: It doesn’t really work. Beyond that, it would take all of the mystery and fun out of living through the transition.
Another problem with projecting the baseball future (which is something we do here all the time!), is that someone (again, like us) will come back later on and mock you for all the things you got wrong, but only rarely give you credit for what you prophetically hit on the head.
I was looking back recently to find the level of interest the Orioles had in Cespedes some four offseasons ago, and in doing so came across an article that talked about Orioles prospects and future starting rosters. It was sourced in Baseball America (link lost) in December of 2011, the offseason before the current run of four strong Orioles campaigns (as compared to the many losing years just before this time).
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Looking ahead to 2015, this is what was projected to be the key components of the Orioles roster …
- Catcher: Matt Wieters
- First Base: Nicky Delmonico
- Second Base: Jonathan Schoop
- Third Base: J.J. Hardy
- Shortstop: Manny Machado
- Left Field: L.J. Hoes
- Center Field: Adam Jones
- Right Field: Nick Markakis
- Designated Hitter: Ryan Flaherty
- 1 Starter: Dylan Bundy
- 2 Starter: Zach Britton
- 3 Starter: Jake Arrieta
- 4 Starter: Brian Matusz
- 5 Starter: Jeremy Guthrie
- Closer: Dan Klein
Actually, they did get five of the eight players on the field correct, although flipping positions on Hardy and Machado since Manny was only seen then as a shortstop. But that was bold to predict Hardy as remaining with the Orioles long-term. Wieters was present but minimal in 2015, due to injury. Jones had yet to sign his contract at the point of these predictions. And they were correct on Schoop.
First base was a big miss, as Davis played an equal number of games at third base in 2011. There was no certainty that he was going to break out into a top player. Delmonico was once a top prospect, being drafted in the sixth round in 2011. But he was traded to the Brewers in a deal that brought Francisco Rodriguez to the Orioles. He has been a lower batting average guy who walks a lot and has a lot of power. He also got suspended for 50 games in 2014 for testing positive for amphetamines, specifically Adderall. Does any of this sound familiar? Delmonico is now a third baseman in the White Sox system.
In the outfield, L.J. Hoes did not pan out for the Orioles, but, he’s back with a new chance! And many people would look at the prediction for Markakis and think, “Well, he should be in right field.”
The prognostication that had me roll of my chair and onto the floor was that Ryan Flaherty would be the O’s designated hitter by 2015. What!? At the time of this article, he had been drafted but was yet to play his first MLB season in 2015. His 2011 stats were pretty nice — a .280 average at AA and AAA with 19 home runs. But to project him as the DH of the future … wow.
And it is the starting rotation prediction that is especially off. By 2015, Britton and Matusz had been relegated to bullpen roles, Bundy was yet in a perpetual state of recovery, Guthrie was long gone, and Arrieta was winning the Cy Young in the National League. At the time of the article, these were reasonable picks (other than Guthrie) and ones that looked like they could not miss.
And finally, for closer was Dan Klein. I will bet that most O’s fans have never heard of him. This is a sad story of unfulfilled potential. After a highly successful career at UCLA, he was drafted by the Orioles in the third round in 2010. He began to quickly move through the system to AA Bowie, being dominant everywhere. But shoulder injuries hit hard, and he was never able to come back from them.
Related Story: Future Orioles Rotations
What might we predict as a lineup for the 2019 Baltimore Orioles? That would be difficult. But heck, let’s be crazy. To get Mancini in the lineup, let’s move Davis to third and Manny to short. Manny will have to be extended for this, as will Adam Jones. But here we go …
Catcher – Chance Cisco
1st Base – Trey Mancini
2nd Base – Jonathan Schoop
3rd Base – Chris Davis
Shortstop – Manny Machado
Left Field – Henry Urrutia
Center Field – Adam Jones
Right Field – Dariel Alvarez
DH – D.J. Stewart
Set-up – Mychal Givens and Tanner Scott
Closer – Darren O’Day
Rotation – Kevin Gausman, Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, Hunter Harvey, Chris Lee