Baltimore Orioles: First Guess at the Opening Day Roster

Mar 31, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; The Baltimore Orioles bird mascot runs out on the orange carpet before an opening day baseball game against the Boston Red Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles defeated the Red Sox 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports /

With the signing of Chris Davis, the Baltimore Orioles have answered a number of personnel questions that might help us even begin to anticipate the look of the opening day 25-man roster.

What a difference a day makes. Suddenly there are fewer serious considerations about players with names like Cespedes, Upton, Gallardo, etc. Yes, there are scenarios out there that make another substantial move possible, though logic would also say it is now rather more remote.

The complicated deferred payment details of the Davis contract do make a few more millions of dollars available for 2016 than would first be imagined if it were the details of the simple average annual value structure. That would be $23 million, whereas the deal (according to Buster Olney) apparently calls for $17 million over the seven playing years, with $35 million over the next decade, and $1.4 million for the final five of 22 total years. It is a nice retirement plan, yes.

But this does leave a handful of millions to use elsewhere. But again, the big-name players would still draw too much to be realistically in play. What I anticipate is that the Orioles will wait and wait until the very end, seeing what bargain deals may be available at that point. It is not a bad strategy actually. There are going to be some deals for a team with a Lincoln or Hamilton still in the wallet.

So let’s be foolish for the first time in 2016 and attempt to guess the 25-man roster on opening day. This will involve 12 pitchers, which Buck has alluded is his plan and intent. There will of course be two catchers, and we can name the starters of eight positions (counting DH) rather firmly, barring injuries of course.

Starters (5) — Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Kevin Gausman, Vance Worley. The first four are rather certain. The Orioles are investing in Worley with the expectation that he is going to contribute. He had some very fine successes in 2011 and 2014. If he can find that again, he will be as good as anything the O’s have. It is worth the shot. He’s not a reliever. Forget that.

Relievers (7) — Zach Britton, Darren O’Day, Brad Brach, Brian Matusz, Mychal Givens, Dylan Bundy, T.J. McFarland. The first five are rather certain. Bundy is 100% certain if healthy. McFarland brings value as a lefty, and he’s a favorite of Showalter. If Bundy is not healthy, it will be a seventh person who proves himself in spring training, someone who perhaps isn’t on the team yet. That Antonio Bastardo deal might still be a good one. This bullpen could well pitch the most innings of any in the American League.

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Catchers (2) — Matt Wieters, Caleb Joseph. The End.

Infielders (5) — Chris Davis, Jonathan Schoop, J.J. Hardy, Manny Machado, Ryan Flaherty. That was not difficult to lay out. Paul Janish will be available at Norfolk if (and when) Hardy goes down.

Outfielders / DH (6) — Adam Jones, Hyeon-soo Kim, Mark Trumbo, Nolan Reimold, Joey Rickard, Henry Urrutia. Only the first three of these are certain. Reimold brings the ability to play all outfield positions. The Orioles are going to be patient with the Rule 5 Rickard, unless he is outright awful. And Urrutia finally gets his chance as a lefty bat, presuming he has a very good spring training. In the wings could be L.J. Hoes if any of these aforementioned outfielders go down. Jimmy Paredes ends up some other place.

Overall — This team does not actually look definitely different than the 2015 Orioles. Ten of the 12 pitchers were with the O’s, who will miss Wei-Yin Chen. The catchers and infielders are the same. There are three new outfield/DH names, but two of them look to make a big difference over last year: Kim and Trumbo.

Next: First thoughts on the signing of Chris Davis

Is this an AL East championship roster? Not certainly, but it can compete for sure. With significantly better corner outfield and DH contributions, top-level arrivals of Gausman and Schoop, along with bounce-back years from Tillman, Gonzalez and Hardy, this could be a team that goes far.

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