Baltimore Orioles: Waiting Around for a Deal

The Baltimore Orioles are certainly going to add more players to the roster, but when is it going to happen and who are they going to be? And what holes are going to be filled?

In light of what has happened around MLB with free agents, varied international signings and trades etc., what actually is the current strategy for the O’s over the remainder of this offseason?

The Orioles are certainly not going to announce their plans or thought processes, nor should they. It leaves much to speculation … and beyond that, concern that too many needs and holes are going to go insufficiently filled.

Let’s try to bring some reasonable speculation to this topic, along with categorizing our thinking (please don’t bail on me; there is a lot more analysis beyond this).

The Chris Davis Situation – Where would an Orioles article be without this topic in the top third? If Davis ends up back in Baltimore, the cost would be such that this would constitute most of the rest of what happens in the offseason. It addresses first base, the left-handed hitting issue, the need for power, and bumps Mark Trumbo to some combination of DH/RF.

Is Angelos giving the order to not do anything else until the Davis ordeal is defined? It is believable, though we don’t truly know. Whereas it is annoying in the extreme to have to wait and wait, the evolution of events might be such that Crush ends up back in Baltimore at a reduced price relative to what would have previously happened (in that there is no visible suitor for his services). For sure, it is not going to cost more. And this scenario would thereby save a few bucks for use elsewhere, or even to make a future extension of Manny Machado or Jonathan Schoop more plausible.

The Alternative Top-Drawer Outfielder Free Agent Situation – The names involved (in likely order): Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Dexter Fowler. Pulling the trigger on one of these at this juncture would certainly eliminate situation #1 above. Making the leap now might be more necessary if it really looked like there was an active market for these very gifted players. But as with the current lethargy surrounding Davis, it could well be that both the price and the years of contract commitment will come down dramatically by waiting. Again, this could have long-term benefits for the Orioles franchise.

The Trade with the Rockies for an Outfielder Situation – With the Rockies signing Gerardo Parra for three years at $17.3 million, they now have four left-handed hitting outfielders. The thinking is that they will surely do some trading, so why not with the Orioles who need this commodity?

There is a lot to like about these three players: Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon or Corey Dickerson. It was my intent to feature an article that analyzed these possibilities. But, there are two reasons I did not: first, Steve Melewski did it yesterday, and secondly, I don’t think it is worth the effort. What do the Orioles have to trade back to Colorado? The Rockies need starters even worse than the Orioles do. They want Kevin Gausman. As the older George Bush was famous for saying, “Not gonna do it … wouldn’t be prudent.”  Beyond that, as Melewski points out in his article, the awful home/away splits on all three players just jumps off the stats page — as they were great at Coors Field but mediocre everywhere else.

The Uncertain Starting Rotation Situation – The fact of the matter is that there is not going to be a certainty about the rotation for any foreseeable future. There are no guaranteed “take it to the bank” types of starters remaining in the free agent market (if there really is such a pitcher). Yovani Gallardo is certainly not a certainty. Look at his WHIP numbers — a frighteningly high number for someone pitching at OPACY. He could bring Ubaldo-like buyer’s remorse. There is really nowhere externally to turn to address this issue; current Orioles pitchers are going to have to up their game.

The Stashing of a Strong Bullpen with More Arms Situation – The Orioles have a great team strength in the bullpen, as we wrote about in this blog very recently. There are strong current options, along with some very good-looking prospects not too far away from being ready. Even so, there is talk of the Orioles adding more … like an Antonio Bastardo. Why?  Read on …

So what is going on?

Nobody knows for sure, maybe not even Orioles management!  But this is my best guess as to how to put all of these observations together …

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There is a realistic possibility (not just a faint hope) that the price for a Davis, Cespedes or Upton is going to be quite a bit lower than imagined several months ago. The O’s are likely hoping to get one of these three at a bargain. They can wait until someone else picks the first one or two, and then they can get the remaining third option, which is a no-lose scenario.

As stated above, there is little chance that the Rockies are going to be sufficiently happy with anything the Orioles are going to offer in return for one their three outfielders. Even as I’m sure this is discussed between the teams, there does not look to me to be a workable deal in this direction.

There are no good external starting pitching options. Therefore, the Orioles are going to hope for bounce-back years from Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez, maturity from Gasman, and consistency from Ubaldo Jimenez. Beyond that it is a big-time tryout camp with lots of current names like the three W’s — Worley, Wright and Wilson. And look for the Orioles to do even a couple of “Red Cross” types like Matt Latos, for example. We are back to the “throw a lot of paint on the wall to see what sticks” strategy.

Next: Comparing our view of O's ownership with the way other franchises are seen

And finally, the Orioles are philosophically going with a pitching strategy of working backwards from the end of the game versus working forward from strong starters. The compilation of strong bullpen arms (with perhaps a 12-man staff with some optionable relievers) could be used to hope for the best for the first five innings, and then lock down opponents rather fully from that point forward. It goes against conventional wisdom, but it also has been seen to work (see Royals, Kansas City, a.k.a. World Champions). And it has the additional advantage of being cheaper, and we know the O’s like that word.