Five Reasons for Concern about the 2016 Baltimore Orioles

Though there is much to yet be written about the offseason for the Baltimore Orioles, it is not difficult to put together a list of reasons for concern in anticipating the 2016 season.

Every team has question marks and liabilities, no matter how many highly-paid and highly-skilled assets they possess. And it is easier in many ways to be negative rather than positive, even as we yesterday on this site started off the New Year by listing five reasons to anticipate a good season in 2016.

Skepticism and concern is not rare within the Orioles fanbase. Whereas the O’s have put together four consecutive seasons at .500 or well above, a long-term culture of losing seasons that preceded this Showalter era is never far from the memory banks of fans. As well, being a mid-sized market team, the resources have never been available or prioritized in such a way as to truly be in the league of the big spenders.

So here are five reasons to have concern as an Orioles fan in January of 2016 …

Reason #5 — Injuries to key players could make the Orioles look like the Ravens

Injuries to critical players and the subsequent fallout for their team has become a larger element in professional sport than ever before. Just ask the Ravens. Yes, that is an extreme example, but we have seen some measure of the same affect MLB teams, including the Orioles.

Showalter regularly talks about how everyone is working through a long season with some aches and pains and bruises. The O’s do not make a big deal of these nagging sorts of injuries, though at some point they become obvious to even the casual observer.

J.J. Hardy has been especially afflicted by a number of these besetting conditions to his back and shoulder, etc.  Adam Jones has been among the most resilient players in all of baseball, but a number of bruises from various diving catches and wall collisions ended up sitting him on the bench several times in 2015. Matt Wieters never really made it fully back from his 2014 surgery. Jonathan Schoop missed an extended period of the season, playing only 86 games.

All of these players will enter spring training at full recovery and ready to go, but can they sustain it over a full season? Is time catching up with Hardy and Jones in particular? Who else might fall to the injury bug? The depth at certain positions is not stellar, and the Orioles cannot afford a Ravensesque rash of injuries.

Reason #4 — The corner outfield positions may not improve over 2015

The offseason fears last year that the losses of Cruz and Markakis would doom the Orioles appeared to be vindicated by the team’s 81-81 performance. Though the lackluster picture of 2015 is bigger than merely two positions, it would seem reasonable to believe that the Orioles would have made the playoffs with those players re-signed.

We wrote recently about the negative fallout from both right field and more dramatically left field. It is still amazing that nobody really stepped up to definitely take advantage of these open opportunities.

The Orioles have so far sought to address this need with Hyun-soo Kim and a few other moves. I remain of the conviction that Nolan Reimold could be a good OBP guy along with Kim, but I’m not going to bet my retirement (such as it is) on either of them. Without a better guarantee of a big-name sort of replacement, the same disasters could befall the corner outfield positions again in this coming campaign.

Reason #3 — Chris Davis may be lost and his power not replaced

In the same way the question was asked last year as to who would replace the lost production of Markakis and Cruz, it is being asked again about the power numbers of Chris Davis. It is a lot to replace.

The Orioles have obtained Mark Trumbo, who could put up some nice home run tallies in Baltimore, or he could be a bust. Kim will hit a few. Schoop may hit quite a few more, while hopes are that Hardy and Wieters can kick in some additional dingers as well.

Beyond that, one would have to hope for a Yoenis Cespedes or Justin Upton kind of signing to guarantee similar long ball production. Will this really happen?

Reason #2 — The starting rotation may well repeat the weak performance of last year

Regular readers know that I don’t subscribe to the simple theory that a team’s ultimate success is most particularly and primarily based upon where the starting rotation takes them. This was a truer statement not many years ago, but the Royals displayed that a combination of other factors can bring success even with a mediocre starting staff.

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However, the starters can’t stink up the place and be among the worst in the league. Wei-Yin Chen is gone and not very likely to return. Even if he does, it does not infuse a rotation upgrade over 2014. That is true even if a similar arm like Yovani Gallardo is secured.

There is no moving forward for the Orioles as a team unless Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez return to solid performance, Ubaldo Jimenez does not revert to 2014, and Kevin Gausman finally arrives at the pitcher he is believed and hoped to be. All of these could happen; the talent is there is each of them.

But it is asking a lot to hope for all of the aforementioned pitchers to put it together at the same time. There are options in the wings who could be very good, or they could be very insufficient. The entire spectrum of great >>>>> terrible is imaginable.

Reason #1 — The Orioles simply might not spend enough to fill enough holes

Actually, this final item is a part of all that is written above. Knowing of the Chris Davis offer, surely the Orioles are going to spend some more money. But how much? Without Davis, will that amount be spent on others, or was that only for him?

I think we are entering a very weird offseason free agency period. The big spenders have already allocated big bucks to meet specific big needs. Now the middle class of baseball is essentially looking around at each other, all afraid to be the first one to make a move and thus spend more than if they had been patient and let someone else go first.

The Orioles are not the type to go first in this sort of scenario. And if they go near to last, what are they going to have in hand as a result? Are they hoping for lightening to strike again and get a Cruz bargain of $8 million? The whole thing is a high risk game.

Next: Five reason to be excited about the 2016 O's

At the heart of everything written today is the fact that there are few guarantees in baseball. We could say that is true of all of life, but, sticking to baseball, would we love the sport as much as we do if it was filled with a more definitive 1+2=3 consistency? Probably not.