Baltimore Orioles: Chris Davis with a One-Year Contract?
May 1, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Baltimore Orioles first baseman Chris Davis (19) looks back after he struck out during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
In a year with a loaded free agent class, could former Baltimore Orioles first baseman Chris Davis sign a one-year contract and try again next year for the big deal?
The free agent class that we will be talking about one year from now is as weak as this current crop is strong. Even though some teams may anticipate that by spending more now in the expectation of not spending next year, the players at the top of the list in ‘16-’17 are still going to stand out more than they would right now.
In that there has not been much public identification of a team beyond the Orioles who are especially interested in Chris Davis, I was going to later this week float a bold and crazy year-end prediction that Crush might just sign a contract for a single year, hoping to cash in next offseason in a bigger way.
Maybe the idea is not as wild and crazy as I imagined, as ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote an article suggesting that this might be a viable strategy for a number of players. Let me quickly say that he did not identify Chris Davis in his article as being in mind for such a deal. Among those he identified particularly were Justin Upton, Scott Kazmir and Ian Kennedy.
Upton is particularly focused upon in Olney’s article, illustrating the benefits that could be gained in the same way that Nelson Cruz did in 2014 with the Orioles. The suggestion is that Upton could go to a hitter-friendly park and boost his numbers in preparation for a very large contract. Hey, there’s a place called Camden Yards that could work to accomplish this! Just sayin’.
The entire notion is honestly not totally whacko. Consider that merely seven players (Jason Heyward, David Price, Jordan Zimmermann, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake) have shockingly combined to accumulate almost $1 billion in total contract compensation over the years for which they have signed. Beyond that, totaling the expected salaries (annualized for 2016) of the top 50 free agents on MLBTR’s list, they cumulatively add up to about $766 million.
A surprising number of top free agents remain unsigned, and one has to wonder where all of the money is going to come from to pay them all. At the same time, there is seemingly no end to our ability to be amazed at the dollars that are ultimately spent each year.
The suggestion (by Olney and other baseball writers) is that many teams are waiting for others to take a couple of the top remaining outfield and pitching free agents off the board, and then the price for the remaining players will be reduced and more affordable than taking a leap at any of them right now. That is a sort of Dan Duquette way of thinking that may be rubbing off!
I have previously pictured DD as that person who goes to a large, annual neighborhood yard sale. He goes from house to house all day long, looking at the various items and considering what is available. Though he will occasionally purchase something he sees as underpriced, his primary strategy is to see what is available in the final 20 minutes of panic — making a low offer to get a true steal.
The article referenced today essentially suggests that free agents should rent themselves out for another year and come back to the annual yard sale on the next cycle, when fewer homeowners will be participating and where there will be more shoppers.
More from Baltimore Orioles
- What other Baltimore Orioles Offseason Storylines will you be interested in seeing?
- Baltimore Orioles to Face Numerous Playoff Contenders Down the Stretch
- Baltimore Orioles Showing Encouraging Signs During Recent Wins
- The Baltimore Orioles and the Expanded September Roster
- Orioles Josh Rogers Expectations in his Major League Debut
It is difficult to imagine Chris Davis as a Boras client allowing something like this, though it is not terribly dissimilar to what Matt Wieters is doing.
It could also be said that Davis cannot afford to do this and get yet another year older — that his long-term value will not be more desirable (proportionately) another year later. I actually don’t buy the idea that Davis will particularly age and fade in just a few years, as have more than a couple of power hitters before him. One thing that can be said for Davis is that he is truly an athlete; he is not just a big guy or a fat boy with some eye/hand skills. Those who faded were not able to do things like play 1B, 3B, LF, RF, etc. as can Davis. I would expect Chris to age well and remain effective for a good number of years.
Next: Was right field truly a disaster for the 2015 Orioles?
That is not to say that I am a big proponent of the reported $154 million offer to Davis. I do think that it is a very fair ceiling and would be pleased to see him sign it and return to the Orioles. But it is not my opinion that it is the end of the world or of the revived Baltimore Orioles franchise if he does not.
There is a lot of offseason yet to go!