Baltimore Orioles: Future Starting Rotation Hopefuls

Sep 18, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Baltimore Orioles manager Buck Showalter (26) points to the bullpen as he takes out Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Tyler Wilson (63) during the fifth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

As the Baltimore Orioles consider starting rotation pitching needs, there is more to consider than just the 2016 season.

The best free agent pitchers available are all looking for long-term contracts of something like four years or more. The Orioles have apparently made some three-year offers to such as Scott Kazmir and Yovani Gallardo, but are very reluctant to go beyond that.

One reason for this is of course the simple fact of the great expense involved in free agent pitching. The guarantees and warranties aren’t particularly good (see Jimenez, Ubaldo or Arroyo, Bronson).

Another reason to not get terribly committed to too many long-term pitching deals is that, having paid for them, you have to use them for better or worse. This therefore limits the number of openings for rising talents within the organization.

A successful franchise has to develop their own rotation pieces that will take the team through hundreds of innings of baseball at a reasonable cost. In early December, Dan Duquette said …

“I think the prices at the top of the market have been staggering. Price got a huge contract. Greinke got a big contract. They are the top pitchers in the league. I frankly wasn’t expecting those type of prices. What that tells me is that we have to develop our Kevin Gausmans, our Mike Wrights, our Ty Wilsons. Get the most out of them to help our ballclub.”

The Orioles have had some definite setbacks with minor league pitchers who were destined to be probable big-leaguers developing major injuries — Dylan Bundy, Hunter Harvey, Brandon Kline and Matt Hobgood, to name a few. There are many more names less known.

But if all were to go well from this point forward, the following graph is what might be hoped for in terms of arrival times of rising talents … charted with the remaining years of current rotation pieces …

Yes, I understand that this is presenting a perfect world. But you get the overall picture.

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So it is evident that there is an immediate need for 2016, but then it clogs a good bit just a year later. Perhaps this gives some measure of understanding as to why the Orioles might be particularly open to a comeback pitcher looking to get re-established, like a Mat Latos (whom we wrote about a few days ago).

The graph tempts us to use the old metaphor of the cavalry coming over the horizon. That picture … those words … causes Orioles fans to look to the past rather than the future. The term was used some five to six years ago. And though some of those cavalrymen have made it — like Jake Arrieta, now for the Cubs — only Chris Tillman is in the O’s rotation. Brian Matusz and Zach Britton are in the bullpen. A few others like Brad Bergesen are largely gone and forgotten.

Next: Some trivia questions for O's fans

The Orioles are really due to have some success with young pitching. It makes a huge difference in the successes of a franchise.