Baltimore Orioles: Facing Another Mediocre Offseason?

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Sep 18, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Baltimore Orioles hat and glove lays in the dugout at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

With the reported $154 million contract offer to Chris Davis now being withdrawn, are the Baltimore Orioles now facing another lackluster offseason?

Without doubt, a good percentage of the O’s fanbase was emotionally invested in seeing this winter perhaps be categorically different than the past. This was especially bolstered by the unprecedented offer wherein 86-year-old Peter Angelos himself was an active agent.

But Davis turned it down. It would be more accurate actually to say that Scott Boras turned it down.

Here is a perspective on a number that big. Most of us can’t relate to this, but Davis would make over $60k a day (every day of the year for seven years) with this contract!  Really? That’s not enough? But I digress.

So in the wake of this rejection, are the Orioles facing yet another offseason of minor moves here and there, the sorts of deals that some disenchanted O’s fans refer to as Dan Duquette’s bargain basement, dust bin pick-ups?

No small part of the fanbase remains bitter about the events of just one year ago, believing that re-signing either Nelson Cruz or Nick Markakis would have been sufficient to have had the Orioles repeat as AL East champions. Yet another part is encouraged that the O’s certainly look to be willing to spend more money than ever in the past.

So are you a believer, or are you a doubter?

The believer would say, “Look, this really is a different year. The Orioles have already gone so far as to re-sign Darren O’Day, a move not really anticipated to work out. And they have made another big move in securing Mark Trumbo, along with other smaller moves like Vance Worley, etc.  And now they have $22 million more that they can spend since Davis turned down that annual amount.”

The doubter would answer, “Yes, it is nice to get O’Day back, but the Orioles need a lot more than that. Trumbo is only for one year, not seven. And don’t expect that $22 million to be available for anyone else or for several anyone elses.”

The believer would say, “But didn’t you hear how Duquette emphasized going after left-handed, outfield hitting? Now he has the money and opportunity to do that.”

But the doubter would reply, “Don’t you know that Duquette has the ability to talk and say nothing? He talks a bigger game than he delivers. And that sum of money can only buy you one mid-level pitcher and a mediocre corner outfielder. Don’t get your hopes too high, you’ll just end up disappointed again. So get prepared for a bunch of cheap AAAA types of deals and re-tread types of players trying to resurrect a largely dead career. We’re going to be back to throwing a bunch of cheap mud on the wall and hoping that some of it sticks and we hit a lucky bargain.”

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So again, I ask the readers:  are you more of a believer or a doubter?

A couple of thoughts:

Enough has gone wrong for the Orioles on trying to save money and not make large deals that it feeds the thought that the ownership and management is simply cheap. This does fly in the face of the fact that the O’s have a slightly higher than middle of the road payroll.

The problem of filling out the roster is a big one this year. So many free agents hit at the same time. As chronicled here on this blog ad nauseam in the past, it would be financially prohibitive to simply bring back the personnel of the 81-81 team of 2015. This is not a small problem.

Duquette is in a difficult situation at all times. There are spending limitations that are a reality. He has to try to answer questions without saying too much that gets a rumor going or a misunderstanding. Yet at the same time he wants to communicate that they are genuinely working to improve the ball club. So he is alternately heard to be either spouting baloney, or to be building false expectations.

Player costs are terribly high, especially for pitchers. At the same time, there are more free agents remaining to claim the cap space of the 30 teams than there are dollars in that space to pay what each of them is projected to make. There will be deals at the end.

I do not see a way for the Orioles to gain one of the better remaining free agent pitchers and have much left over to address a number of other holes.

The expectation here is that a left-handed bat of some renown will be gotten, but that all else will be cheaper acquisitions that will leave the fanbase feeling largely unfulfilled and skeptical approaching spring training.

Next: Major themes from FanFest

  • At the end of the day and of the offseason, what it will take for the Orioles to have a bounce back year in 2016 is for them to have a bounce back season from a number of players: Tillman, Gonzalez, Hardy, to name a few, along with a breakout spring training and season from some players like Kevin Gausman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Henry Urrutia or Dariel Alvarez. And don’t be surprised to see Steve Pearce in that mix as well.