Baltimore Orioles and Ryan Howard: Not a Good Move

Mar 12, 2014; Sarasota, FL, USA; Philadelphia Phillies dh Ryan Howard (6) hits a single in the fifth inning of the the spring training exhibition game against Baltimore Orioles at Ed Smith Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

One name that has been bandied about as a possible first base option for the Baltimore Orioles is Ryan Howard.

This idea has been floated several times on the FanSided Network, as well as by one of my intelligent colleagues here on The Baltimore Wire. However, I personally think this is a terrible, terrible decision.

Ryan Howard is 36 years old. In 2014, when he played 153 games and he led the majors in strikeouts. In 2015, Howard slashed .229/.277/.443 with 23 HRs, 29 doubles, 77 RBIs, 53 runs and 107 hits. Howard has had problems staying healthy over the last few years, and although he could DH, if that is what the Orioles are going to use him for it still doesn’t solve the first base issue.

Howard is also owed almost $25 million in 2016. That is 25,000,000 bucks, my friends. Sure, the Phillies would probably eat some of that, because they would LOVE to get rid of Howard.

As far as advanced metrics, Howard has never rated well defensively. But now, at his age, and with his injuries in his past, his range is at its worst. Howard has not had a WAR ahead of 2.0 since 2009. He has had a WAR below -1 three of the last four seasons. For perspective, a WAR below 0 is supposed to signify a replacement player. Think Ryan Flaherty, or newly acquired Steve Tolleson.

For comparison, let’s look at the Orioles’ two first base free agents: Steve Pearce and Chris Davis.

Steve Pearce is 32 years old. In 2014, Pearce’s career year, he hit .293/.373/.556. He had 21 RBIs, 26 doubles and 99 hits in only 102 games. In 2015, Pearce hit .218/.289/.422 with 15 HRs, 13 doubles, 40 RBIs, 42 runs and 64 hits in 92 games.

Pearce only has one WAR over 0.6, and that was 2014, when it was a sterling 5.9.  Pearce has made $5.1 million throughout four seasons with the Orioles. Steve certainly has more range at first base than Howard does.

Chris Davis is 29 years old, and 2014 was the worst full season in Davis’ career. But I think it has become clear that as long as he has his exemption for his ADHD medication and is healthy, that aberration is not who Chris Davis is.

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Let’s look at Davis’ career average in Baltimore, which includes his fabulous 2013, terrible 2014, a 2015 where he was a major power hitter, and 2012, his first full season in Baltimore.  Davis is a .257/.341/.526 hitter, averaging 32 HRs, 23 doubles, 85 RBIs, 72 runs and 115 hits.

The advanced metrics also like Davis more, as his WAR in his four full seasons with the Orioles is between 1.6 and 6.5. He also has played a very good first base, with great range and also the flexibility to play the corner outfield positions.

That is why Davis is set to bring in a contract of 20-plus million dollars a year. Peter Angelos keeps saying he wants to be able to pay Davis.

Now, back to Howard. What would be a trade that makes sense for the Orioles? First, they can’t give up any pitching. Not in the major leagues, and especially not one of their established starters … not when starting pitching is another need on this team. And not in the minors, where they don’t have enough of it.

They also can’t take on more than about $10 million of Howard’s contract. This is an ugly, bloated deal signed by Ruben Amaro, and the shrewd Andy MacPhail is a genius at making deals (see Jones, Adam).

I wouldn’t trade for Howard if I had to. But, there are some ways where it would work, but not if it means giving up quality major or minor league pitching.

Next: Have you heard about reliever Andrew Triggs?

As this exercise shows, Steve Pearce would do almost as well, if not better in some ways, than Howard.

And, in trading, when it comes to the Baltimore Orioles, it is always about the starting pitching.