Baltimore Orioles: Financing a Free Agent Future

Aug 23, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles second baseman Jonathan Schoop (6) throws to first base for the force out of Minnesota Twins left fielder Shane Robinson (21) (not pictured) during the fifth inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

As reported in all Baltimore Orioles media sources, management continues to speak openly of the capacity to sign multiple free agents like Chris Davis specifically, while professing interest in corner outfielders, top starters, and additional bullpen help.

There are two apparent possibilities: the Orioles are going to spend an unprecedented amount of money in 2016, or this is a bunch of baloney to temporarily fend off the fanbase.

Or is there a third option? More on that is a moment. But first …

MLB Trade Rumors has highlighted and commented upon a Monday article by MASN’s Steve Melewski that frankly lays out in one column the very same questions and concerns that have been written about in this space over the past couple of weeks. Simply stated: it is to say that the math does not add up to be able to do all that the Orioles claim they are going to try to do, let alone to address all the holes that seem to exist after the disappointing 2015 campaign.

Again, as we have written in similar fashion, the four big contracts on the books account for $58 million, with $35 additional million going to the 11 arbitration-eligible players. Add the collection of small salaries that need to be paid, and the Orioles are already in the mid-90s. That leaves only $24 million to equal the 2015 payroll.

Melewski illustrates the problem as follows …

"“… say the Orioles signed Chris Davis at $25 million per year and Alex Gordon at $15 million. They are at $135 million and would not have added one pitcher. Take away Davis and give $25 million to a legit top-of-rotation starting pitcher and they’ve added a pitcher but now don’t have a first baseman. We haven’t accounted yet even for a possible re-signing of Darren O’Day, which could cost $7-8 million or even more per year.”"

But here is another road to possibly take, though it too would be a path the Orioles have been unknown to practically ever travel. They could back-load a large salary to Davis or a top pitcher, like that given to Mike Trout of the Angels. His deal is for $144.5 million over six years, but close to $100 million of that is to be paid in the final three years.

Even more back-loaded is the 13-year, $325 million salary for Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins. In the first three years, Stanton gets $6.5 million, $9 million, and $14.5 million — that’s only $30 million of the total.

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Long-time Orioles fans will probably presume that the O’s will be slow to do something of this sort because of the institutional memory of the Albert Belle fiasco of the late 90s. It sounds like a deal now, but that contract was for $65 million over five years, of which Belle played but two before being physically unable to continue. It haunted the O’s payroll for years.

There is simply no way around it. Large free agent salaries are a large risk. There is no shortage of disasters out there where teams terribly regret their generosity and optimism, given the little bang for the big buck.

And another problem with back-loading is that it simply puts off paying to another day where you may regret the obligation. And in the case of the Orioles, that other time would likely be when they may well want to have resources for at least a couple of fellows named Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop.

While refusing to spend on salaries and improving the team with some infusion of top talent does tend to thwart most legitimate attempts at competing at the highest levels, big spending is far from a guarantee to bring home championships.

Next: A guide to understanding the talk of Dan Duquette

You cannot spend your way to the top. It requires the back end of a rotation to perform, along with middle relievers and a host of pre-arbitration players filling roles and roster positions to make for a top team. And frankly, those sorts of players did not come through for the Orioles in 2015, but they will need to next year, no matter how the Birds spend their millions of dollars.