Orioles: The Postmortem on Preseason Predictions – Position Players

Sep 18, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Baltimore Orioles center fielder

(10) works out prior to the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

OUTFIELDERS

The Good (prediction accuracy)

Adam Jones – Is everyday playing over the years catching up with Jones? I worried about that, saying, “His batting average has been dropping just a bit year to year, and that could happen again. I think Buck would do well to give Jones more off days … I will call for about .279 and 28 home runs.”  Jones hit .269 with 27 homers. Without some injuries, he would have hit closer to my projection.

David Lough – My writing was true, predicting that the Orioles would not have enough room for him in the long run.

The Bad (prediction accuracy)

Delmon Young – I think the Orioles gave up on Young too soon, but he was a victim of the non-flexible roster. Even so, I was too positive, saying, “After putting up numbers in the low .300s, Young will come close to the same this year.”  He hit .270 in 52 games before being released.

Steve Pearce – I was never (before the 2014 breakout season) a fan of Pearce hanging around and being given shot after shot of being a regular part of the team. But he last year appeared to be a guy who had finally arrived. I said, “Look for Pearce to produce only slightly less than he did in 2014.”  Nope, average dropped from .293 to .218, and homers from 21 to 15.

Nolan Reimold – As always, if allowed to play regularly, my opinion is that he would be a strong player for the O’s.  I said, “Proving that good guys do win in the long run, Reimold starts hot and sticks for the season, providing significant contributions.”  It can be said that he provided very good contributions, but that they came only late in the season.

The Ugly (prediction accuracy)

Alejandro De Aza – I really did think this was a guy who would experience in Baltimore the kind of re-birth that Arrieta did in Chicago. Boy, was I wrong! I said, “I don’t see a reason why he cannot have a good season while hitting often at the top of the Orioles order, especially against right-handed pitching. De Aza could put together a .280 season in 125 games.”  He hit .214 in 30 games before being sent away.

Travis Snider – Again, I thought similar things of Snider as I did of De Aza. Baltimore would be a place of re-birth, writing, “Hey, who wouldn’t want to play in Baltimore rather than Pittsburgh?!!  Let’s call a .275 average with 16 home runs in 135 games.”  He only managed .237 in 69 games with a mere three home runs.

Next: We predicted the catcher situation fairly well …