Baltimore Orioles: The Chances of a Better Second Half of 2015
May 26, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Chris Tillman (30) pitches during the first inning against the Houston Astros at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
It is very difficult to not feel a good bit of disappointment in the first half of the 2015 season for the Baltimore Orioles. Just when it looked like they had turned it around with an 18-5 stretch, they did a face plant into the All-Star break with a 3-10 record – dropping from seven games above .500 to a perfect 44-44.
The small amount of comfort to be taken from this mediocre performance is of course that only the Yankees are truly better off, and that being only four games. But it could be so different … probably should be.
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While the portion of the baseball world that finds interest in the midseason classic is watching it (which does not include me), I’m thinking about the second half and am wondering about the chances for the Orioles to truly have a turnaround. And there is a reasonable hope for that, a hope that can be considered both historically and in terms of personnel expectations. Let’s look at each.
Historical Considerations
Since Buck Showalter became manager of the Baltimore Orioles, the Orioles have had better second half records in three out of four seasons. Also, the Birds were 34-23 at the end of 2010 when he became the manager, and they were 37-37 in the second half (final record of 66-96). The only year that featured a poorer latter portion of the season was 2013 – much attributable to the bullpen meltdowns that plagued that squad.
Here are the splits of records and win percentages over the recent past …
| Year | Before ASG | .pct before | After ASG | .pct after |
| 2011 | 36-52 | .409 | 33-41 | .446 |
| 2012 | 45-40 | .529 | 48-29 | .623 |
| 2013 | 53-43 | .552 | 32-34 | .485 |
| 2014 | 52-42 | .553 | 44-24 | .647 |
| 2015 | 44-44 | .500 | ??-?? | .??? |
I think it is a generally true evaluation that Showalter and the Orioles have figured out as seasons progress how to maximize personnel and win a better percentage of games than in the earlier portion of each year. At the same time, it is really sad to look at the first half numbers of the previous three years to see that they were 5, 10, and 10 games over .500 … which really makes this season look grim by comparison.
Personnel Considerations
One would have to expect that the quality of the players on the Orioles would lead to expectations of a better cumulative contributory performance. I don’t want to just sound like Buck, who puts a pretty face on things – not to be critical in saying that, I’d do the same in his position. He recently reflected with the beat writers about the injured players who have now returned, along with his belief in the depth of the system.
But thinking logically through this: Let’s ask ourselves how many of the Orioles players have lived up to expectations? And I’m not just talking about high-level, career-year performances … just up to what you’d hope from them in a solid year.
Certainly there is Manny Machado. We would add Ubaldo Jimenez, Wei-Yin Chen, Darren O’Day and Zach Britton to that list. It could be argued the Adam Jones is on it as well, or at least close to it. There have been surprisingly nice contributions from Chaz Roe and Jimmy Paredes – though the latter can disappear at times.
But beyond that list, there is a lot of disappointment. Hopes were for Delmon Young and Alejandro De Aza to be regulars, but they are gone. Bud Norris and Chris Tillman would be on the hugely disappointing list … and probably add Steve Pearce. We need to see more from J.J. Hardy, and Matt Wieters started well but has now cooled off. And certainly it would be great to get more out of Caleb Joseph, Travis Snider, Tommy Hunter, Brian Matusz, etc. And Chris Davis is his own mixed bag of results.
In an excellent article today, Steve Melewski of MASN stole my thunder before I could write about it – speaking of how (with statistical proof) that the Orioles are actually almost identical to 2014 in total offensive production (although, to be accurate, much of these big numbers came from a handful of big offensive games). The bigger issue has been the pitching, especially the starting pitching.
All of this is to say that there are plenty of players who should perform better in the second half than there are those who are likely to cool off. But the rotation needs to replicate their second half of last year. Assuming that Jimenez and Chen can remain consistent, one would expect Gonzalez and especially Tillman to improve markedly. Add to this a healthy return of Kevin Gausman, and this could look like a different team entirely. Even as currently constructed, it should be the team to win the A.L. East; but the devil is in the details.
We’ll continue with more of these similar thoughts over the next couple of days.