Baltimore Orioles: Miscellaneous Midseason Musings

Jun 15, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher

Wei-Yin Chen

(16) pitches to Philadelphia Phillies second baseman

Chase Utley

(26) during the second inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

I have a number Baltimore Orioles and MLB items that are probably not big enough for a single article, so here now while the season is in a mid-year pause, let me collect a few of those thoughts.

The Ups and Downs of the Baltimore Orioles

If it feels like this is a team that is streaky, it is not your imagination.

I am a cycling enthusiast, and I have a phone app that tracks my rides. Some of the longest rides I do are on a rail trail – a former railroad bed that has been paved. So you know that the ups and downs are very, very gradual, though they are there. However, on the app (which calculates feet above sea level), when 40 miles are combined into a linear chart that is only four inches wide, those ups and down are compressed into peaks and valleys worthy of the Rocky Mountains.

That is what a linear chart of the O’s season would resemble. There are three upward spikes and three downward. Dividing the 88 games and 44-44 record into six segments, this is what it looks like …

7-5 … +2

8-14 … -6

8-5 … +3

0-5 … -5

18-5 … +13

3-10 … -7

That is completely bipolar.

The Length of Baseball Games

As we know, Major League Baseball has made some attempts to shorten game lengths. I certainly applaud this and believe it is a worthy effort that needed to be undertaken. But has it worked? It seems to me, just by feel, that the Orioles games are of shorter duration overall.

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Well, here are the numbers so far for all of MLB. Up to this point of the 2015 season, the games are indeed 10 minutes shorter than in 2014. Last year was a new record with an average game (including extra innings games) being 3:07, but this year it has dropped to 2:57. The lowest it has been in the past 25 years was 2:49 in both 2003 and 2005. If you only consider nine inning games, figure about five minutes less than these numbers. Typically about 8% to 10% of games go into extra frames. The incredible baseball statistics site – our partners at Baseball Reference.com – has added a new page this year to track these numbers.

Probably most of this time drop has come from the lesser amount of time between innings. This would mean that the actual game itself is not really speeding up. I don’t think that is going to happen until pitchers are forced to work a bit faster, and I would be for that happening.

Run Differentials

I probably should have included this information in my recent piece on the O’s lack of accomplishment in winning close games this year. But here are some very contradictory stats.

In 2015, the Orioles had a run differential of just +7 – scoring 712 runs while allowing 705. This year it is already a +41 over just 88 games, with 74 remaining.

There is a category of analysis call the Pythagorean winning percentage, which by definition is an estimate of a team’s anticipated winning percentage and record given their runs scored and runs allowed. Developed by Bill James, the mathematical calculation tells you how a team logically should be doing relative to these important numbers.

So, with a +7 in 2012, the Orioles should have finished the season at 82-80, just over .500 for the season. Instead, they were 93-69. And, currently with a +41 through 88 games, the O’s should have a record of 48-40 (eighth best in MLB), but instead they are just 44-44.

Throwing off the theorem in 2012 was the unusual numbers of close game the O’s won – like being 16-2 in extra innings. Messing up the formula in 2015 is the number of high-scoring games the Birds have won – like 19-3, 18-7, and 11-3 … a plus 35 in just those three games.

The Orioles are 11-7 in blowout games (those with a 5+ run differential), but are only 12-14 in one-run games.

Home and Away Games and Records

A feature of recent Orioles teams has been an ability to play well and win on the road. In both 2012 and 2014 they were 46-35 on the road. And even in the poorer season of 2013, the O’s were only three games under .500 at 39-42.

Currently the Orioles have played 45 games at home and are 27-18, but in 43 road games they are but 17-26. This is another feature and statistic that simply has to change in the second half. They will have to be 22-16 away from OPACY the rest of the year in order to simply equal the number from 2013. If they do that, while also winning at their current .600 pace at home, they would finish 88-74; and hopefully this would be enough to capture the A.L. East title this year.

It is not going to be easy, but it can be done.

Next: What are the chances of a better second half for the Orioles

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