Baltimore Orioles: Overall Team Preview and Predictions for 2015

Oct 3, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles left fielder Alejandro De Aza (12) stands in the outfield during game two of the 2014 ALDS playoff baseball game against the Detroit Tigers at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

Having previously written the past two days about predictions, first for the Baltimore Orioles pitching staff and then for the position players, this third segment of preseason predictions will speak of the overall team and where we might find them at the end of the day on Sunday, October 4^th.

At that time, after a season-ending seven-game homestand – with four games against Toronto and the final three with the Yankees – they will have a 93-69 record and five-game divisional championship over the second-place Blue Jays. This will mean that they will be able to capture the AL East title at home at the beginning of that week against that nemesis from Canada – and there will be a sense of justice surrounding it, given all that happened over this past winter. Can somebody give me an “amen?”

There is no doubt that the Orioles benefitted from a down year of baseball during 2014 in the perennially tough AL East. The Birds won by a large margin and were the best team in the division, even if the others did not have a plethora of injuries. And as we well know, the O’s were not immune from such either.

Benefitting from a career year by Nelson Cruz, a breakout season by Steve Pearce and solid play from a handful of others including veterans Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and J.J. Hardy, it was the pitching staff that really made the difference. The bullpen was among the better relief staffs in all of baseball, but it was the solid pitching of the starting rotation over the final four months that accounted for the largest difference.

Since that entire starting staff is back, and only a two-month rental in the bullpen is missing, this foundation is more than adequate in my view to place the Baltimore Orioles as a definitive favorite in the AL East. Without doubt, the division has strengthened – especially the Blue Jays and Red Sox. Even so, the Orioles’ position players look prepared for a sufficient support of the pitching staff to carry the team to a title, albeit a bit closer than last year.

I will not attempt to identify the other playoff participants from the other five divisions. Seattle looks to be well-positioned, and most everyone likes the Washington Nationals to power their way to the World Series on the strength of their pitching staff. It could well happen.

I will predict the Orioles to make it to the American League Championship Series, but to sadly lose again and fall short of the Fall Classic. If the playoff games were played on a nearly-daily basis as is the regular season, I would pick the O’s and Buck Showalter to fully prevail. But with it stretched out and with multiple travel and off days in the playoffs, this gives an advantage to teams with superstar players over squads with well-rounded lineups. Buck agrees with this assessment.

So here is my AL East prediction …

Baltimore – 93-69
Toronto – 88-74
Boston – 85-77
New York – 80-82
Tampa Bay – 70-92

How have I done with predictions in other years? Well, I picked the O’s to have 92 wins in 2014; and we know that they totaled 96. However, I did have them losing to the Rays by three games; and of course, the Rays had tons of injuries and fell apart. The Orioles did a little worse than what I thought in 2013, and just a bit better than my prediction in 2012. I did think that they would do very well in that breakout year, but did not expect they’d actually make the playoffs.