Baltimore Orioles Predictions: Wild Card Players in 2015
Jul 23, 2014; Anaheim, CA, USA; Baltimore Orioles relief pitcher Brian Matusz (17) walks past manager Buck Showalter (26) as he leaves the game in the eighth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Matusz walked in the winning run and The Los Angels won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
In making multiple days of Baltimore Orioles predictions before the beginning of spring training, today I’ll finish the final of four articles on this topic by looking at seven players that are difficult to predict which way they are going or how they will perform. (If you missed any of the prior three articles, the first was about those players who could have breakout seasons, the second was looking at Orioles who would likely preform at an equal level, and the third identified six players I fear will have some regression in their performance.)
The Baltimore Orioles players we look at today are those who could imaginably go in either direction – either toward a really fine season, or very believably through a difficult time of struggle. These are players who have seen both ends in their careers.
Alejandro De Aza
So which Alejandro De Aza is going to show up in 2015? Will it be the one who hit .293 for the Orioles in 2014, or the one who hit only .243 for the White Sox prior to that last year? Will it be the guy who stroked 17 home runs in 2013, but only nine in 2012 and eight last year?
What change will playing in Camden Yards do for De Aza? Will he play well enough in the beginning of the season to earn and maintain the regular left field position? Can he be an effective leadoff hitter? His career numbers say so: .271 average and .334 OBP.
Will De Aza be negatively impacted by going to arbitration to settle the salary gap? Maybe that depends on if he wins or losses. He acts like it won’t bother him.
My guess is that De Aza will hit in the low .270s with a satisfactory OBP as leadoff, especially since there is no other obvious choice. But anything could happen.
Tommy Hunter
So which Tommy Hunter is going to show up in 2015? The pitcher with a 3.98 ERA in the first half of 2014, or the one who posted 1.86 for the second half? Will it be the one with the .276 batting average against before the All-Star break, or the pitcher with a .206 after that?
Looking back on 2014, a problem early in the season was the presumption that Hunter was the first choice for the closer role. It was his job to lose. He lost it. After that, in a set-up role, he was great. Since he won’t be closing, is it a fair hope to believe a 2.20 ERA or something of that sort could be expected?
I actually think he will do well again in the set-up role. It would appear he has found his place with near-100 mph fastballs out of the bullpen. But, we’ve seen it all fall apart for the big guy as well.
Brian Matusz
So which Brian Matusz is going to show up in 2015? Matusz is the poster child for ups and downs as a professional pitcher. After the infamous 10.69 ERA in 2011, two years later he was at 3.53 as a reliever with a WHIP of 1.157.
Last year, Matusz threw another 51.2 innings with a 3.48 ERA. Like many of the Orioles pitchers, he was especially effective in the second half of 2014 – 1.42 ERA versus 4.68 before the break.
I really don’t know. Really – how can you predict what this bundle of nerves will do?
David Lough
So which David Lough is going to show up in 2015? Will it be the one with the concussion-like symptoms of the first half, or the one who hit .351 in the second half?
The sample sizes with Lough are … well … they’re low!
I kinda think he is going to break through with a quality season, but I said that last year also. And there is so much competition for playing time and at-bats. The Orioles sure could use his speed, but, the entire thing could go either way.
Wesley Wright
So which Wesley Wright is going to show up in 2015? Who is Wesley Wright?
The answer to the second question is that he is a lefty relief specialist with 300 career innings of 4.17 ERA pitching, 80% of which was with the Astros. The first question is uncertain, for sure.
There have been a couple of windows of time in Wright’s career where he has put up some stellar numbers, as in 16 games with the Rays in 2013 where his ERA was 2.92 with WHIP of 0.973. But his overall WHIP of 1.402 is not encouraging, nor is his career average of four walks per nine innings pitched.
The more I look at this, the less encouraged I am. Coach Fresh Eyes could be a wonder worker, but this seems more like hoping for lightning in a bottle for a season within a season.
J.P. Arencibia
So which J.P. Arencibia is going to show up in 2015? Actually, there really is only one Arencibia to show up – he of the .207 career average that peaked at .233 in 2012. He can play defense, even more than at catcher. He can hit home runs, going deep about once in every 22 plate appearances. He was a first-round draft choice, so there’s that – which always counts for something in Baltimore.
So what is an expectation for backup catching depth? I don’t know; that’s why he is on this list.
Ryan Webb
So which Ryan Webb is going to show up in 2015? Webb’s numbers are at least decent with a 3.38 ERA over his career. But he pitched to a 3.83 with the Birds in 2014 in 51 games. But if you take out the two worst performances he had on the season, his ERA drops to 2.79 over the other games. One of them was in an Orioles win, and the other in a 10-2 blowout loss.
I would predict another up and down season for Webb in the second year of his two-year contract. But if he could get the sink working in spring training, make the team and sustain it, he could have an excellent season as a dependable sixth and seventh inning sort of reliever.