Baltimore Orioles Predictions: Slipping and Sliding in 2015

Sep 1, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; A detailed view of the Baltimore Orioles center fielder Adam Jones bobble head on the field prior to the game against the Minnesota Twins at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

This third of four articles about Baltimore Orioles predictions is bound to be the most controversial. Yesterday I discussed six players I projected to have similar seasons in 2015 as to the recent past, whereas Monday was dedicated to a forecast of players believed to be headed toward breakout and improved years.

Today I look at a list of six players that I see as unlikely to produce as in the last year or two. For most of these guys it is a matter that they have done so well that it is difficult to maintain the level of play as in the past year or two. So it is not actually an all-out prediction that these six are going to have terrible seasons in 2015.

Understand also that I hope to be terribly in error about what is coming next. But we all know that not every player is going to always improve from one season to the next.

Don’t shoot me.

Adam Jones

Without doubt, the heart and soul of the Baltimore Orioles over the time of their 3+ years of ascension to the top of the AL East has been center fielder Adam Jones. What a great trade it was to bring him to Baltimore, and what an asset he has been for the team and the community. He’s simply awesome.

Jones has been very consistent over his years with the Orioles. His lowest average in the past five years was .280, which is also his career average. His highest was .287. The OBP for Jones peaked at .335 in 2012, but dropped to .311 last years.

The home run totals over the past three campaigns have been consistent as well: 32, 33, 29. Doubles have been decreasing though at the same time: 39, 35, 30. Also decreasing are his numbers of walks: 34, 25, 19. That is the same as saying that his free-swinging is actually increasing.

A strength has been that Jones plays almost every game, missing only three games in three years. Yet that could be argued to perhaps work against him as the season advances. Here are his first half / second half numbers:

2012	.289	.285
2013	.296	.267
2014	.301	.251
Career	.290	.264

Over Jones’ career, his monthly numbers from May through September are like this: .300 > .287. > .273 > .268 > .262. That is a pretty definitive trend. And overall it is slowly growing from year to year.

This would lead to a conclusion that we could expect Adam Jones’ numbers to slightly drop again this year. He hates not playing and is apparently a beast to have around the dugout on those days. But the Orioles have players now who can give him some more occasional days off, though it could be argued that this breaks up his patterns and causes a larger net deficit.

Matt Wieters

The elbow injury and reconstructive surgery of Matt Wieters could not have come at a worse time for the Baltimore Orioles. Just as he was finally achieving the total package of defense AND offensive production as expected when drafted in the first round, this happened. Instead of getting what would likely have been two outstanding seasons before he flew away on the free agent plane piloted by Scott Boros, that time will be largely involved in surgery and recovery.

The Orioles are going to see Wieters play a lot of games in 2015, but I don’t think he is going to be an everyday player, or anything close to that for at least the first couple of months. This was a big, big break from daily play, and though I would still expect to see Wieters contribute positively on offense, I would be surprised if it was in the upper .200s with power … nothing like the start we saw in 2014.

Steve Pearce

The good news is that I was wrong about Steve Pearce in the past

Probably as proof that I don’t learn from my mistakes is including Steve Pearce on this list. The good news is that I have always been wrong about Pearce, writing of him in other offseasons as a utility guy at best – not worthy of working hard to maintain on a 40-man roster and taking up a lot of playing time space in spring training.

Pearce may be said to have been THE player in all of baseball to have had the best breakout season in 2014, hitting .293 with 21 homers in 102 games. That is a pace for a 35-home run season by an everyday player.

On one hand, it can be explained that he did this at age 31 because of the benefits of accumulated experience and the opportunity to play more regularly. There is credibility to that. On the other hand, it could be seen as an unsustainable aberration. There is no doubt that he has now caught the attention of the same geeky analysts who figured out how to pitch and defense Chris Davis into a .196 season of frustration.

Though still seeing Pearce as a valuable piece of the Baltimore Orioles who will see a lot of productive playing time in 2015, I would expect it to be at a step lower than last year.

Darren O’Day

Darren O’Day has been a great asset for the Orioles, not only on the field, but in the bullpen as almost a JV pitching coach for the other relievers. He has a coaching career ahead. As with the others in this article, it is difficult to imagine him again having a season as in 2014. The numbers are fantastic: 1.70 ERA, 5-2 record, WHIP of 0.888! That is crazy awesome. With the Orioles over three years he is 17-6 with a 2.05 ERA and WHIP of 0.941 … just tremendous numbers for a reliever.

How can Darren O’Day sustain these numbers?

How does he sustain this? That is why he is on the list, but, he might just do it again. But isn’t it conventional wisdom that relievers don’t do this? Isn’t that why the experts said retaining Andrew Miller with a big contract was too risky?

Random thought here: How many of you knew that O’Day is 6-4, 220? I don’t think of him as a little guy, but, that is bigger than I realized.

Budd Norris

How can anyone not like Bud Norris, I mean, when he’s on your team. His competitiveness is probably hard to watch as a fan of the opposing team.

And 2014 was a great breakout year for Norris with his 15-8 campaign and 3.65 ERA. There is without doubt a sense that Norris has put a lot of things together and “arrived” now as a big league pitcher.

Having said that, there are other metrics (that I’m not a huge fan of in every detail) such as FIP (fielding independent pitching) that would suggest his season was a bit outside the norm. So I would expect some slippage and regression. But in a final year before free agency, Norris could bulldog his way to 25 wins or something crazy like that too.