Baltimore Orioles Predictions: Repeat Performers in 2015
Jun 5, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Chris Tillman (30) leaves the game after being relieved of his duties by manager Buck Showalter (left) as Chris Davis (right) looks on during the second inning of a baseball game against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports
Some bold Baltimore Orioles predictions were made yesterday about anticipations for quite a number of the O’s players to make steps forward in 2015, both large and small. Tomorrow will be the opposite side of spectrum, predicting some who will be stepping back and slipping a bit. That may not be a popular discussion.
But today, let’s talk about some of the Orioles that I would anticipate to remain about the same as in 2014. We’ll look at six players. Remaining the same for four of them is a rather positive things, whereas for the other two it is not as flattering.
Chris Tillman
One of the criticisms of the Baltimore Orioles starting rotation is that it does not contain an “ace.” I’m not sure what the accepted definition of an “ace” is, though it would be difficult to say that any one of the Birds’ starters is a true #1, top-of-the-order, lights-out winner. But the total picture of the O’s staff is pretty solid, being the first and foremost reason for the 96-win season of 2014. Together, they posted the #3 ERA in the league at 3.44 – not bad for OPACY as your home stadium!
Leading the way is Chris Tillman, the opening day starter. His 207.1 innings pitched ranked him as #11 in the American League. That is 22 more than the next highest Oriole, as Wei-Yin Chen posted 185.2. Tillman’s ERA was the exact number as the whole pitching staff – 3.44.
One of the oddest statistics you will ever see is this: Tillman was 5-5 at home with a 2.54 ERA. He was 8-1 on the road, with an ERA of 4.31! Now that is strange stuff.
Tillman’s overall numbers would have been truly stellar were it not for a couple of very short outings where he got totally shelled. But overall, he is quite consistent and gives the Orioles a chance to win the vast majority of the games he pitches. In 34 starts, the O’s won 24 of those games. That is what you want from a top pitcher.
Let’s chart that and compare it with the top six pitchers in the American League and their team’s record on the days they started. This is impressive:
| Name | Starts | Wins | Losses |
| Chris Tillman | 34 | 24 | 10 |
| David Price | 34 | 20 | 14 |
| Felix Hernandez | 34 | 22 | 12 |
| Corey Kluber | 34 | 22 | 12 |
| James Shields | 34 | 21 | 13 |
| Max Scherzer | 33 | 24 | 9 |
| Jon Lester | 32 | 20 | 12 |
I would predict a similar season in 2015 from Tillman. There is no reason to expect any regression. He has experience and is at peak health and condition.
Miguel Gonzalez
It is difficult to find a better example of consistency than Miguel Gonzalez. He may have the least talent of any pitcher on the Orioles, but he is a true pitcher. Gonzalez has learned to maximize his skills, bend but not break, and simply get the job done of retiring the opposition and getting his team back into the dugout.
His ERA over 159 innings was even better than that of Tillman, as Miggy dropped to a career low of 3.23. His record was 10-9 and the team was 14-12 in his 26 starts. Gonzalez did have a number of games where he probably deserved a better fate than he received.
I would expect this fellow of consistency to remain consistent for the most part. He is a smart player. The only stat that might give some concern for possible regression is his WHIP, which has dropped over three years from 1.206 to 1.226 to 1.296.
J.J. Hardy
There is no better model of consistency in the field than that of shortstop J.J. Hardy. And we have no reason to believe that this would change now that he has signed an extension contract with the Orioles. It could well be that he could have gotten a better deal elsewhere.
Much has been made of the definitive drop in home runs off his bat over the four years in Baltimore, hitting 30, 22, 25 and 9 over those years. On the other hand, in 2014, his batting average and on base percentage recovered to the level of 2011.
However, check out these RISP stats – runners in scoring position batting average over his four years with the O’s …
| 2011 | .305 |
| 2012 | .264 |
| 2013 | .234 |
| 2014 | .315 |
We can forgive the drop in home runs with this kind of clutch hitting performance.
I would predict Hardy to hit in the .260s with about 14-15 home runs in 2015.
Zach Britton
If we can have a repeat performance from Zach Britton in 2015, everything is going to be fine with the Baltimore Orioles in terms of competing and winning the AL East.
This will be the first year in a while that I will not refresh and reprise my annual article that I entitle “The Myth of the Designated Closer in Baseball.” Yes, some hyperbole there, but not too much. I generally dislike the closer strategy that has come to dominate baseball in the modern era. At any time in the sport, I only think there are about 10 players who are legitimate “closers” – guys who can be pretty much counted upon to come in and shut down the opposition and finish a game.
The Baltimore Orioles have a truly legit closer in Britton. It was not anticipated, not even thought about at this time a year ago. And that looks rather silly and ignorant now.
Here is a lefty with mid 90s speed on a sinker! I’ll say that again – a sinker! Over 75% of balls hit off him are on the ground. That is a closer. He’s legit, and there is no reason to not expect the same awesome performance in 2015.
Ubaldo Jimenez
Now the story of today takes a different twist. I would predict Ubaldo Jimenez to have a similar season in 2015.
I remind my beloved readers – most of whom were not with me a year ago when this was a very new site – that I wrote then that the Orioles were not getting from Jimenez what they thought they needed with this signing. He has never been a true innings eater, and that is because he cannot throw a high enough percentage of strikes to consistently go deep into games.
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Although I’m sick of writing about him and using the phrase “many moving parts,” I don’t know what other words to describe the baseball pitching equivalent to a Michael Jackson dance. What is REALLY going to ever fix this?
I believe there will be periods of time where Jimenez puts together some winning streaks and solid pitching for the Orioles over the course of the three more years they are stuck with him. And I don’t think he’ll get worse than 2014. I just don’t know what hope there is for him to be better.
Ryan Flaherty
I am not honestly as down on Ryan Flaherty as my local reputation has it. He hit .221 in 2014. His career average over 750 plate appearances is .221. It is not bold to predict therefore that he will hit .221 in 2015. Maybe he can bolt to .222 or .223.
What keeps him on the team, of course, is his excellent glove skill and arm strength. He has great defensive versatility. At any position on any given day, he is in the top third defensively of all MLB players at that position on the field on that day.
There is a place in MLB for a talent like Flaherty. He will be with the Birds for several more years. He will bat in the low .220s – that is who he is.