Orioles: Colby Rasmus – Missed Opportunity or Missed Bullet?
Oct 3, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles left fielder Alejandro De Aza (12) stands in the outfield during game two of the 2014 ALDS playoff baseball game against the Detroit Tigers at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports
While probably a majority of Orioles fans and writers presumed that Colby Rasmus was going to end up in Baltimore this year, that will not be happening. The left-handed outfielder signed with the Houston Astros for a reported one-year, $8 million deal. Good luck with that!
Unless the Baltimore Orioles can suddenly get a liking for Ichero Suzuki, there are no more free agent outfielders of any repute remaining on the board. To find help (that some would dispute is not really as needed as has been feared by others), the O’s are going to need to make some sort of trade. Even there, the pickings are slim, as detailed in the previous article on this site by Nate Wardle.
So is losing out on Rasmus a terrible missed opportunity? Or would it be better seen as a missed bullet? I would propose the latter.
It could have worked out that Rasmus would have had a huge year in Baltimore – with motivation to use such to launch a larger future deal in the mold of Nelson Cruz. My guess is that his well-publicized personality quirks and issues would not have been a problem in the Orioles clubhouse.
However, simply looking at the past as any predictor of the future, his chances of having a very solid year are probably similar to those of Ubaldo Jimenez … quantifying it as something like 30-40%. That is about how much of the previous four years both of these players produced at a high level. There are going to be extended times when each puts it together, perhaps even for a full season. But neither is the sort of investment you would want in your portfolio, let’s say, if you are nearing retirement age. They can’t be counted upon.
Rasmus’ splits against left-handed pitching are not very good – batting only .213, versus .257 against right-handers. He has also only hit .204 for the Jays against the other three AL East opponents. One would certainly think that the in-house possibilities can do that. They would not hit as many home runs, but neither would they strike out as much.
Rasmus struck out in 33% of his plate appearances in 2014, the same percentage as Chris Davis. By comparison to other Orioles: Jonathan Schoop – 25%, Ryan Flaherty – 24%, Delmon Young – 20%, Adam Jones – 20%, Manny Machado – 20%, Steve Pearce – 20%, J.J. Hardy – 18%. I think the Orioles have the strike out category well taken care of (they ranked 5th in the AL)!
But if we think the Orioles strike out too much, the Astros have it all over the Birds. In a MLBTR article yesterday that discussed some pluses and minuses about the signing, there was this …
One also has to wonder about the Astros’ apparent decision to load up on so many strikeout-prone players; Rasmus joins a group of regulars — Chris Carter, George Springer, Jonathan Singleton and Jason Castro — who whiffed at a 30 percent clip or higher. Though Houston projects to have an abundance of power throughout the lineup, Astros fans may again need to be prepared for a strikeout-prone offense and somewhat of a boom-or-bust approach at the plate.
So it is altogether possible that we will see Rasmus tear things up this year for the Astros. Again, I would say there is about a one-in-three chance of that, but it could really happen – he has a lot of skills. But overall, I am guessing we are more likely to look back this coming fall and be thankful he played elsewhere.
So what might the Orioles do, even if they don’t make any sort of move that brings any additional corner outfield help? Well, hit the link below for a full discussion of this from just yesterday.