Justin Forsett Contract: How much will Ravens running back cost?
Dec 28, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Justin Forsett (29) celebrates after beating the Cleveland Browns 20-10 at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
Perhaps no player aside from Joe Flacco was more important to the Baltimore Ravens offense than Justin Forsett, and there is no player in the NFL whose free agency is more mysterious than Forsett’s.
Re-signing Forsett to a big money, multi-year deal goes against two huge principles good general managers hold dear: Don’t shell out for older backs; and don’t shell out for one-year wonders.
Yet unlike most one-year wonders, Forsett is not a big risk for a let-down, at least in terms of effort. The 29-year old’s heart has never been questioned, just his physical ability to get the job done. Now that he’s proven his worth, Forsett will get the multi-year deal he has craved.
Three questions emerge: How much does he deserve; how much will he actually get paid; and who will end up signing him?
Let’s start with the question of how much he deserves. There are currently ten running backs in the league whose deals average more than $5 million per year. Forsett is significantly better than two of them (Trent Richardson and C.J. Spiller).
There were a few 1,000 yard rushers making less than that, but they were all on rookie deals. By and large, the going rate for a 1,000 yard back is at least $5 million, with a ceiling of around $10 million for the very best running backs. Of course, that’s for backs expected to reach 1,000 yards, and there are very real questions about Forsett’s ability to reach that milestone again.
If Justin Forsett wants a longer term deal, he will have to accept that he will not be paid like a featured back, but rather a complementary player. There could still be a nice payday in line for a guy who could garner 200 carries and pass block like a left tackle, but it won’t be in that $5 million range.
So to answer how much he deserves, a fair comparison would be Fred Jackson‘s deal, a two-year, $8.7 million contract. That would be a fair starting point in negotiations. If Forsett wants a longer deal, then lower the guarantees, and everyone can go away happy.
There is a very real chance Forsett could be had for less than the number I presented as well, but as every Ravens fan knows, Ozzie Newsome always enters negotiations with a max price in mind. A roughly $4 million per year deal seems like a fair max.
Unlike some positions, running backs have trouble getting in on the spending spree in free agency, so even teams that typically splurge will likely not drive up Forsett’s price. That’s good news for the Ravens.
And ultimately, Baltimore is where Justin Forsett should end up. He is more valuable to the Ravens than anyone else, he’s a great fit for the system (a system that is uncommon in the NFL) and he was a hit with the fanbase.
Signing Forsett to a two or three-year deal and transitioning the primary running duties to Lorenzo Taliaferro is the ideal situation for this backfield. Forsett should have value even on the back-end of a multi-year deal thanks to his third down skills, so as long as the price is right, retaining Forsett is a no brainer.
Next: Baltimore Ravens Season Grades: Justin Forsett and the Running Backs