Baltimore Orioles prepare for future with quiet offseason
By Joe Serpico
It is getting repetitive to say that this has been a quiet offseason for the Baltimore Orioles.
The two departed outfielders are old news. There has been plenty of speculation, but little action. The only significant activity in recent weeks is Buck Showalter meeting with free agent Colby Rasmus. Will he actually sign? It remains to be seen.
If Rasmus is to sign, the rumors are that he will sign a one-year deal with the intent to earn a bigger deal afterwards. Basically, he’s hoping to do what Nelson Cruz did last season. Have a career year and sign a luxurious contract the following year. The Orioles have no obligation to give Rasmus the deal he’s looking for.
With the Orioles seeming so reluctant to make moves this offseason, it could be that the Orioles are already gearing up for what could be a wild offseason following the 2015 season.
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The club has $54.1 million in guaranteed contracts in 2015. They are also on the hook for another $2 million from the buyout of Nick Markakis‘s contract.
They are projected to spend nearly $59 million on arbitration-eligible players, according to Matt Swartz and MLBTradeRumors.com. That number would be the highest in baseball. What makes the number even more astonishing is that the rest of the American League East is expected to spend $64.1 million combined.
In the grand scheme of things, they are looking at a 2015 payroll of approximately $117 million. That would be a franchise record, eclipsing the $107.5 million from a year ago. Those numbers aren’t including that potential Rasmus deal.
The Orioles are pressed with the current book as seven players are in their final year of arbitration. Next offseason things get real dicey.
Adam Jones, Ubaldo Jimenez and J.J. Hardy are the only players with guaranteed contracts for the 2016 season. After that, it’s a significant list of guys who will be eligible for free agency. Chris Davis and Matt Wieters are the two biggest names that could potentially be on the way out after the 2015 season.
Davis is coming off a disappointing 2014 campaign in which he missed the final 24 games and will also miss Opening Day from his 25-game suspension for illegal use of Adderall. Regardless, Davis is likely to earn a significant deal based on his 2013 numbers alone. A return to that form in 2015 and he could earn himself top dollar.
Wieters is in the final year of his rookie contract, but is returning from Tommy John surgery. As previously stated, the Orioles get to see how his elbow responds first-hand before making a decision on his future. Wieters is going to attract money similar to the deals Russell Martin and Yadier Molina have signed.
Seeing two key pieces vanish would be a substantial loss. Any time you lose guys who contribute in the heart of the lineup it is devastating. Can the club manage to keep both in Baltimore for the long haul? Probably not.
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This is a team game though. The rest of the group that could hit the market are an important portion of the roster too.
Darren O’Day, Tommy Hunter and Ryan Webb are critical parts of the bullpen. Bud Norris has been a consistent starter since his arrival in Baltimore. Steve Pearce was undoubtedly the unsung hero a year ago. Alejandro De Aza is being counted on to make up for the losses in the outfield.
There is no way the Orioles can let all these guys slip away. It would be too many key pieces for one ballclub to lose and almost impossible to replace in a single offseason.
The Orioles are blessed with some terrific young talent to build around. Manny Machado and Chris Tillman are early into their deals and could sign extensions to remain in Baltimore down the road. Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman are frequently inquired about in trade talks, but the ballclub’s unwillingness to include them in any transactions indicates they are in the future plans.
The Birds have come a long way since 14 consecutive losing seasons. Dan Duquette and Showalter have built a terrific foundation with a mix of veterans and young guys. They have managed their limited cap almost flawlessly (jury is still out on Jimenez). However, the biggest test yet might be next year.
The proverbial window of opportunity of is now for Baltimore because quite honestly, we have no idea who will still be around next season.
For Oriole fans, the motto remains the same: In Buck We Trust.