Baltimore Orioles: Recalling AL East Projections

Sep 16, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles players celebrate after clinching the AL East title after a game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles defeated the Jays 8-2. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

Now that the Baltimore Orioles have clinched the AL East, I thought I would take a few minutes before the final home series with the Red Sox begins to look back at predictions about the Orioles and the division from all the experts just before the beginning of the season.

Here are the current records …

Baltimore 92-60

New York 78-74

Toronto 77-75

Tampa Bay 74-79

Boston 66-87

Most baseball writers at the end of March this year did not really give the Orioles much of a shot beyond maybe … just maybe … being a challenger. I wrote at the time that this was rather curious relative to the last several years, the powerful season of 2013 by Chris Davis and others, the historic team defense, and especially the free agent acquisitions from late in the offseason.

But I suppose it is difficult for national writers to move away from being enthralled with the ever-present force of the Yankees, the aberration that was the 2013 Red Sox, and the pitching of Tampa Bay. But, in their world, Toronto is as easy to trash as the O’s are.

Looking back, I am proud to report that of all the “experts” I put in my preseason article, I was the closest and most accurate. While on one hand I’m not surprised at that, it is really nothing too great to be so proud of … for several reasons.

I actually picked the Orioles to finish second behind the Rays who would win 95 games, with the Orioles winning 92. So, if the Birds finish the season 0-10, I will have been perfectly correct.

Nobody making predictions could have foreseen the numbers of injuries that befell so many teams, including the Orioles, though Tampa Bay may have been hit by them the worst. While the Blue Jays turned out to be better than the improved basement team I predicted, I was correct about the Yankees’ age and suspect infield catching up to them and that the Red Sox simply had an experience in 2013 where a collection of players had a career year at the same time. I did not see them falling all of the way into the basement, but, I’ll wear the shame of that with a smile.

The writer who was closest to my predictions was Steve Melewski of MASN. Our forecasts were only a game or two different for all five teams, as he had the Orioles finishing second to the Rays with 91 wins.

Richard Justice, a columnist for mlb.com put the standings in the following similar fashion: Favorite: Rays. Challengers: Red Sox, Orioles. Darkhorse: Yankees. Never say never: Blue Jays. The Yankees, a darkhorse? Really?

Random stat: Most wins last 3 seasons: A's 273, Nationals 271, Orioles 270, Cardinals 269, Braves 266.
— Richard Justice (@richardjustice) September 18, 2014

At the end of March I wrote, “ESPN the Magazine’s 2014 MLB Preview Issue used some very odd and bizarre factors to come up with the following (also bizarre) standings.” …