The Dumb and Dumber Chances of a Baltimore Orioles Collapse

Aug 5, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Baltimore Orioles second baseman Jonathan Schoop (6) celebrates a home run with third baseman Manny Machado (13) during the fourth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

SO, WHAT ARE THE CHANCES?

The formula is a bit complicated to explain, and since you’ve read this far I’ll dispense with the details. But considering the size of the lead and the number of games remaining, and calculating the number of relatively-sized crashes over the past 100 years or so, the chances of an Orioles collapse in 2014 are about 4% to 6%.

Yes, that is a lot higher chance than Lloyd’s one in a million shot to land Mary Swanson in Dumb and Dumber, but Orioles fans have to like these odds.

The Orioles have 37 games to go, beginning with Friday’s series-opening game against the Cubs.

Let’s say that the O’s go 17-20 to end the season with a record of 90-72. That is imaginable. But for the Blue Jays to surpass them, they will have to finish 26-9 from this point forward. The Yankees – who won on Thursday evening, would have to finish the rest of the way 27-10. Can you see that happening with either of those teams?

A Competition

Our blog in not one with a lot of commentors, though we know that thousands do read it. So here’s the deal. Leave a comment about your prediction as to the margin of games the Orioles will win the division and over whom; and the closest person I will communicate with and include in a playoffs preview article. Come on people – a little participation here.

My prediction – The Orioles will win by 10 games over the Yankees. The World Series will be the Orioles against the Nationals. It will come down to the seventh game and the bottom of the ninth at Camden Yards, where Jonathan Schoop will hit a walk-off home run.