The Morphing Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles are a team that has been morphing over the first two months of the season from a squad that surprised us in the first week, to a team we feared we would see in 2016.

Even so, the team we feared seeing is one that could well be a playoffs contender, while also being one with very high highs, and very low lows.

Out of the gate in April and on the heels of a lackluster spring season, the O’s featured a series of good starts from the rotation, an expected quality bullpen, and especially the pleasant surprise of team-wide discipline at the plate. Mostly gone were wild swings at pitches well outside the strike zone. The first seven games were victories, as the Orioles were the last MLB team to experience a loss in 2016.

In the intervening time, and especially in the most recent string of games, the starting rotation has struggled and yielded a high number of runs. The strikeouts have begun to rise, especially when playing in Houston!  And flurries of home runs can pile up quickly – like three in an inning or seven in a game.

The optimistic view of this is that at one-third of the way through the season with a 31-23 record, this is on pace to finish 93-69. This is most certainly a playoff team. Those with a pessimistic view counter by saying that it won’t really matter if they do get to the playoffs. Without a good rotation and featuring a lineup of free swingers, the O’s are likely to be shut down by top pitchers and thus unable to out-score a postseason opponent.

But the good news is that the Orioles can continue to morph in positive direction just as readily as in a non-preferred way. The rotation can be improved, hopefully with Chris Tillman and Kevin Gausman leading the way with largely quality starts. It may be that Ubaldo Jimenez can turn back into a healthy place, as the early innings this week showed it is in him. Young pitchers may continue to grow on the job, and Yovani Gallardo may return. A surprise option may arise. All of this is to say that, while some of the acquired expensive free agent pitching is proving to not be worth the cost (as it usually isn’t), there can’t be a situation where every starter is terrible for the remainder of the season.

The Orioles are going to score a lot of summer runs. A research effort into examining the historical patterns of the O’s power hitters in summer months drew mixed results and inconclusive results. A number of these players have short histories in ballparks like Camden Yards, or short histories as professional players. But we know how the ball carries in the summer air in Baltimore.

Here is an updated chart on both home runs and strikeouts …

Only the Mariners have more homers than the Orioles – 81 to 80, though they have played one more game. Other teams have a home run total only just behind the O’s, including the Rays with 79 – weird!  And with strikeouts, there are actually 10 other MLB teams with as many or more.

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The elements and talents are there on this team to have a highly successful season that leads to October baseball. It is a matter of morphing in such a way as to address the known and obvious weaknesses and for the combination of individuals to play at or above their historic track records. It can be done and it is worth following.