Baltimore Orioles: Thoughts on Yovani Gallardo Signing

Aug 16, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Yovani Gallardo (49) delivers a pitch to the Tampa Bay Rays during the fourth inning of a baseball game at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports /

The Baltimore Orioles have signed Yovani Gallardo at long last. Will this be a deal that brings success or regrets?

If there is anything that can be said for sure, it is that free agent pitchers are far from a guarantee. Yet those who get big contracts do secure them on the basis of a long track record of good results.

So which of the following scenarios is the most likely for the next three years of the Gallardo / Orioles marriage?

The top-of-the-rotation strength of the Baltimore Rotation — It is believable. Gallardo is only age 30 (in a week). He has a 102-75 record and lifetime ERA of 3.66. That is not easy to do, even if it was mostly in the National League. He is a ground ball pitcher. Anything close to these statistics will be a very fine success and much worth the expense and loss of a draft pick.

A mediocre middle of the rotation performer — It is believable. If anything, Gallardo has been durable with 30+ starts over a seven-year period. The former second-round selection of the Brewers pitched for them in a less-difficult division and league than what will be faced in the AL East. His numbers tailed off from his NL stats when he pitched for the Rangers. The line is trending down, though not disastrously. Perhaps his best chance for success is to limit damage as much as possible and hope for the potent O’s offense to outslug everyone.

An often ineffective starter who is too expensive to not use every fifth game — It is believable. Much has been written about the drop in his fastball velocity, the drop in K/9, and the rise in his WHIP numbers. Though he managed to effectively limit damage by stranding runners on base at an incredible rate, these trends cannot be denied, especially if they can’t be reversed somewhat. Could Gallardo’s wheels come off completely long before the end of this contract?

Understand this: If Gallardo passes his physical and becomes an Oriole, write me down as a big Yovani Gallardo fan who will watch every pitch with hopes for his effective success. My guess is that the middle of the three scenarios above is the most likely outcome. The AL East will not be kind enough (in my estimation) for the top scenario to eventuate, yet he has a combination of tools and experience that should surely prevent the third possible outcome.