Baltimore Orioles: Looking at the Charlie Blackmon Rumor

Sep 27, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Colorado Rockies right fielder Charlie Blackmon (19) slides under Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Miguel Rojas (72) for a stolen base in the fifth inning of the game at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

It has been a while since the last rumor of the Baltimore Orioles being possibly connected to a player, as we’ve been mostly waiting to see what happens with the Colby Rasmus situation. But on Sunday, a new name surfaced in the form of Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon – this rumor being stimulated in an article by FOX Sports. And both MASN beat writers, Steve Melewski and Roch Kubatko, wrote about it.

Blackmon completed his first full season in 2014 and was a National League All-Star. His numbers look very good: a .288 average with 27 doubles, 19 home runs, 72 RBIs and 28 stolen bases. He did all of this as the leadoff hitter in 135 of his 154 games played. Beyond this, he hits equally well against right-handers and lefties!

What’s not to like about all of that? And why would the Rockies let Blackmon go? He’s only age 28 and is under team control for four more seasons.

The Rockies need starting pitching. They need it desperately. Colorado was #1 in the NL in batting average at .276 and home runs with 186; but they were #15 in ERA by a long shot (4.86) and runs-against per game at 5.05.

OK, so, just trade Ubaldo Jimenez to them for Blackmon. After all, he had a lot of success there in the past.

Oh, if only it were that easy!

Probably most of you read the articles I’ve referenced here. If not, can you feel a big “but” coming?

Digging down into those numbers just a bit, the glaring statistic that jumps out is the difference in batting average at home at Coors Field versus when on the road. It is big: it was .331 versus .241.

Everyone knows that Coors Field is a launching pad. But really, should it make that much of a difference? It would seem that there has to be one of three possibilities that explains this variance…

1. The sample size is too small to draw many final conclusions.
2. If others on the team has lesser divergent splits, maybe Blackmon has simply had problems adjusting to MLB travel.
3. The numbers are what they are because of the location, and thus the road numbers approximate the level of performance that could be expected elsewhere.

Regarding possibility #1, although Blackmon has only played a career total of 305 games, the sample size is more than merely miniscule. In fact, he had far more plate appearances in 2014 than any other player on the team, and 16^th-most in the entire league.

But how does he compare to other players on the Rockies in terms of a variance of batting average at home versus on the road. Comparing to the next seven hitters (by plate appearances), here is a graph …

I will tell you that I did not expect to find numbers like these before I did this graph. I expected to see that Blackmon’s differential was more than most and therefore something to be largely overcome with experience. In fact, quite a number of these players had even greater differentials, which would lead to a not-so-encouraging conclusion that Blackmon’s road stats might be in fact closer to what he would do consistently when away from Coors Field.

I suppose it could be argued that Camden Yards could be something of a Coors Field for this lefty, given the short distance and the flag court. It is difficult to say. But the altitude had nothing to do with his ability to swipe 28 bases.

So is this a good possible fit for the Orioles? It would depend upon the terms of the deal and what the Birds would have to give up to get him. Baltimore is certainly not going to part with Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman or Chris Tillman. And Wei-Yin Chen and Bud Norris are in final years before free agency. That only leaves the costly Jimenez and Miguel Gonzalez. Maybe throw T.J. McFarland into that mix.

The same is true of Rasmus, although it is about dollars and not players to be given up. It all depends upon the deal.

Next: Catchers, cathers everywhere for the O's