Baltimore Orioles: The Value of a Consistent Rotation

Oct 15, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Baltimore Orioles manager Buck Showalter (black jacket) comes out to relieve starting pitcher Miguel Gonzalez (50) during the sixth inning against the Kansas City Royals in game four of the 2014 ALCS playoff baseball game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

After all of the worry about starting pitching for the Baltimore Orioles as the 2014 season began, the rotation became a strength for the O’s throughout particularly the final two-thirds of the campaign. A total of only six pitchers started 161 of the 162-game regular schedule – all but one game by T.J. McFarland.

The six pitchers of course were Chris Tillman (34 starts), Wei-Yin Chen (31), Bud Norris (28), Miguel Gonzalez (26), Ubaldo Jimenez (22), and Kevin Gausman (20). The question has been raised as to what the Orioles are going to do with six starters for five positions. This examination today explains why the O’s don’t necessarily need to get rid of anyone, and why they will almost surely need every one of them.

Taking a look back at the last 20 years since the strike-shortened 1995 season, just how special or unusual was this last year’s performance?

There was no other season in the past 20 years where so few starters were used. A close example would be in 2006 when the top six starters on the team pitched 159 of the games, and a total of eight starters were used. Also in 2010, the top six starters began 153 of the Orioles’ games.

Here is a chart that shows the numbers of games started by the top six starters, the number by the top five starters, the total number of different starters used, and the final team record for that season…

YEAR	Top 6	Top 5	Total	Record
2014	161	139	7	96-66
2013	132	122	14	85-77
2012	121	106	12	93-69
2011	123	111	12	69-93
2010	153	142	9	66-96
2009	117	105	12	69-93
2008	136	125	13	68-93
2007	137	130	13	69-93
2006	159	147	10	70-92
2005	151	143	8	74-88
2004	136	123	12	78-84
2003	142	125	9	71-91
2002	146	135	11	67-95
2001	134	122	12	63-98
2000	145	132	11	74-88
1999	147	139	13	78-84
1998	118	107	14	79-83
1997*	149	140	10	98-64
1996	149	138	9	88-74

*1997 – four starters tallied 130 starts

Let’s take a closer look at several of these seasons and compare them to the most recent year. Remember that the five starters other than Jimenez ranged in ERAs from a low of 3.23 by Gonzalez to a high of 3.65 with Norris. Ubaldo’s was 4.81.

Relative to 2010, though the Orioles likewise only used six primary starters that year, look at the ERA numbers compared to 2014!! Oh my gosh! They are awful, which explains why the team was 66-96. Kevin Millwood was paid to be an innings-eater, and Brian Matusz, Brad Bergesen, Jake Arrieta, and Tillman were being brought up to the majors, ready or not, to learn on the job.

2010 stats ….

Name	Age	W	L	*ERA*	GS	IP	WHIP
Jeremy Guthrie	31	11	14	3.83	32	209.1	1.161
Kevin Millwood	35	4	16	5.10	31	190.2	1.510
Brian Matusz	23	10	12	4.30	32	175.2	1.343
Brad Bergesen	24	8	12	4.98	28	170.0	1.435
Jake Arrieta	24	6	6	4.66	18	100.1	1.535
Chris Tillman	22	2	5	5.87	11	53.2	1.528

The situation in 2006 was very similar. And though the rotation was very regular, it was far from a good situation, again evidenced by the final 70-92 record. The WHIP numbers are just dreadful in this rotation, and looking back at some of these seasons, it really makes one appreciative of just how improved the Orioles are in recent years.

2006 Stats ….

Name	Age	W	L	ERA	GS	IP	WHIP
Erik Bedard	27	15	11	3.76	33	196.1	1.350
Rodrigo Lopez	30	9	18	5.90	29	189.0	1.550
Kris Benson	31	11	12	4.82	30	183.0	1.404
Daniel Cabrera	25	9	10	4.74	26	148.0	1.581
Adam Loewen	22	6	6	5.37	19	112.1	1.540

So simply having a consistent rotation is not the full answer. Who the pitchers are in that rotation matters significantly.