Baltimore Orioles: Comparing A.J. Burnett, Bronson Arroyo, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez
Sep 14, 2013; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Chris Tillman (30) throws a pitch in the eighth inning in a game against the Toronto Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre. The Toronto Blue Jays won 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
Looking back at my writing notes, I see that we have been talking for well over a month now about the Baltimore Orioles possibly signing one of the big four remaining free agent pitchers – A.J. Burnett, Bronson Arroyo, Ervin Santana, or Ubaldo Jimenez. Yes, I know – talk, talk, talk … is all the Orioles do, while fans for some of that “reallocation of resources” to happen.
As I’ve written on a number of occasions, it has to happen with one of these guys. I believe it will, and if it doesn’t, well, I guess I’ll grab a choir robe and join the BOFFC – the Baltimore Orioles’ Fan Frustration Chorus.
In previous articles, I have looked at these free agents and talked about their stats and what they have to offer. But here is the first time I’ve taken their 2013 numbers and put them in a list with the four other presumed, most likely rotation candidates for the 2014 Orioles.
| Name | Age |
W
L
ERA
G
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
SO
WHIP
H/9
HR/9
BB/9
SO/9
SO/BB
Santana
30
9
10
3.24
32
211.0
190
85
76
26
51
161
1.142
8.1
1.1
2.2
6.9
3.16
Jimenez
29
13
9
3.30
32
182.2
163
76
67
16
80
194
1.330
8.0
0.8
3.9
9.6
2.43
Arroyo
36
14
12
3.79
32
202.0
199
88
85
32
34
124
1.153
8.9
1.4
1.5
5.5
3.65
Burnett
36
10
11
3.30
30
191.0
165
79
70
11
67
209
1.215
7.8
0.5
3.2
9.8
3.12
Tillman
25
16
7
3.71
33
206.1
184
87
85
33
68
179
1.221
8.0
1.4
3.0
7.8
2.63
Chen
27
7
7
4.07
23
137.0
142
62
62
17
39
104
1.321
9.3
1.1
2.6
6.8
2.67
Gonzalez
29
11
8
3.78
30
171.1
157
81
72
24
53
120
1.226
8.2
1.3
2.8
6.3
2.26
Norris
28
10
12
4.18
32
176.2
196
89
82
17
67
147
1.489
10.0
0.9
3.4
7.5
2.19
When these numbers are laid out in this fashion, one can see why these pitchers are attractive. As Orioles fans, we (rightly) tend to look at 2013 as a fantastic season for Chris Tillman – one where he should have likely won 20 games. But in the big picture of things, each of these four free agents had similar sorts of stats – though not with the number of wins. Only Arroyo had a slightly worse ERA than Tillman, and only Jimenez had a poorer WHIP – due to his propensity to give up walks.
It is likely a true statement that any of these four pitchers would have had better won/loss records with the defense and run support of the Orioles.
Despite the struggles Burnett had with the Yankees a few years ago, A.J. is by many sabermetrical analyses the best of the four. He should also be the easiest to sign to a one-year deal without loss of a draft choice. I have written about this quite a bit here on The Baltimore Wire, including this argument TO HIM that he should play for the Birds. In a MLBTR article last night, it noted however of the Phillies’ interests as well, and that their Assistant GM Scott Proefrock is friends with Burnett and resides in the same neighborhood. Ugh – it is never easy for the Orioles.
The second best choice for the Birds is Arroyo. He too does not demand a draft pick to be forfeited. Though approaching age 37, he has remained effective in throwing 200-inning seasons. Jayson Stark of ESPN.com wrote last night in quoting Arroyo, “I am a guy who’s performed for the last 10 years as consistently as anybody in the game, and for some reason, nobody’s thrown me an offer yet.” This seems to contradict a whole host of reports, but in any event, it is going to take probably a two-year, $12 million-per-season contract to get it done.
The third and fourth choices in order would be Ervin Santana and Jimenez. Each costs a draft pick and each will be expensive, even if the price is dropping as time goes by. Jimenez would be the better choice were it not for the 80 walks in 183 innings. But make no mistake about it, both are very good pitchers.
Really, just one of these guys secured for the Orioles would make a horrific offseason look suddenly a whole lot better. The rotation would be enhanced, and there are enough pieces in place to cobble together a pretty decent bullpen. It is difficult to imagine that the options available in LF, 2B, and DH are not going to be better than the past couple years.
So just this one move would make the Baltimore Orioles look much more formidable. “It has to happen.”